The Impact of Climate Change on the Generation of Hydroelectric Power—A Case Study in Southern Spain

Solaun, Kepa; Cerdá, Emilio

doi:10.3390/en10091343

Cited by 27 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 12 publications

(13 reference statements)

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“…The environmental and social repercussions of these physical effects are being studied from multiple perspectives (Olmstead, 2014;World Bank Group, 2016). For example, there is work related to water quality (Molina-Navarro et al, 2014), the effects on ecosystems and the services they provide (Warziniack et al, 2018), and the impact on the food security (Tumushabe, 2018) and water security (Flörke et al, 2018) of the population, although the majority of the studies deal with the impacts on the economic activities which are more sensitive to the availability of water resources, such as agriculture (Meza et al, 2012), urban supply (Díaz et al, 2017), or the hydroelectric sector (Solaun and Cerdá, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change effects on the hydrology of the headwaters of the Tagus River: implications for the management of the Tagus–Segura transfer

Pellicer-Martínez

Martínez‐Paz²

2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Currently, climate change is a major concern around the world, especially because of the uncertainty associated with its possible consequences for society. Among them, fluvial alterations can be highlighted in basins whose flows depend on groundwater discharges and snowmelt. This is the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River basin, whose water resources, besides being essential for water uses within this basin, are susceptible to being transferred to the Segura River basin (both basins are in the Iberian Peninsula). This work studies the possible effects that the latest climate change scenarios may have on this transfer, one of the most important ones in southern Europe. In the first place, the possible alterations of the water cycle of the donor basin were estimated. To do this, a hydrological model was calibrated. Then, with this model, three climatic scenarios were simulated, one without climate change and two projections under climate change (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5)). The results of these three hydrological modelling scenarios were used to determine the possible flows that could be transferred from the Tagus River basin to the Segura River basin, by simulating the water resource exploitation system of the Tagus headwaters. The calibrated hydrological model predicts, for the simulated climate change scenarios, important reductions in the snowfalls and snow covers, the recharge of aquifers, and the available water resources. So, the headwaters of the Tagus River basin would lose part of its natural capacity for regulation. These changes in the water cycle for the climate change scenarios used would imply a reduction of around 70 %–79 % in the possible flows that could be transferred to the Segura basin, with respect to a scenario without climate change. The loss of water resources for the Segura River basin would mean, if no alternative measures were taken, an economic loss of EUR 380–425 million per year, due principally to decreased agricultural production.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change effects on the hydrology of the headwaters of the Tagus River: implications for the management of the Tagus–Segura transfer

Pellicer-Martínez

Martínez‐Paz²

2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…These studies look at different spatial scales ranging from a global or continental perspective [5,[9][10][11][12]] to a country or local perspective [13][14][15][16][17][18][19] using different Global (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM). The models are run with either the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, [20]) or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, [21]) scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Hydropower represents an important pillar of electricity systems in many countries. It not only plays an important role in mitigating climate change, but is also subject to climate-change impacts. In this paper, we use the Swiss electricity market model Swissmod to study the effects of changes in water availability due to climate change on Swiss hydropower. Swissmod is an electricity dispatch model with a plant-level representation of 96% of Swiss hydropower plants and their interrelations within cascade structures. Using this detailed model in combination with spatially disaggregated climate-change runoff projections for Switzerland, we show that climate change has ambiguous impacts on hydropower and on the overall electricity system. Electricity prices and overall system costs increase under dry conditions and decrease under average or wet conditions. While the change of seasonal patterns, with a shift to higher winter runoff, has positive impacts, the overall yearly inflow varies under hydrological conditions. While average and wet years yield an increase in inflows and revenues, dry years become drier, resulting in the opposite effect. Even though different in magnitude, the direction of impacts persists when applying the same changes in inflows to the 2050 electricity system.

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“…Representative reference data was used in the calculations for renewable energy, but year-to-year statistical variations were not considered. It should also be noticed that the climate change will affect the weather and hence also the renewable energy production, e.g., the wind and solar conditions and precipitation may change [34][35][36], but considering these effects were outside the scope of this paper.…”

Section: Energy System Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathway Analysis of a Zero-Emission Transition in the Nordic-Baltic Region

et al. 2019

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A zero-emission pathway for the Nordic and Baltic region in Europe is described based on the comprehensive policy and scenario analyses, accompanied by energy system modelling. The analyses show that a least-cost strategy would massively employ renewable energy, particularly in the power sector. Through strong coupling across energy sectors and countries, electricity would play a central role in the decarbonization of the main energy sectors. In particular power-to-heat conversion, where heat storage appears important in addition to existing hydropower. Technical and regulatory barriers in front of increased sector coupling and flexibility were identified, and policy measures are proposed to overcome these. In addition to a high carbon price, dynamic tariffs and taxation of electricity would be important to allow market signals for flexibility to reach end-users. A stronger power transmission connection from the Nordics to the mainland-Europe and the United Kingdom would be beneficial for the emission reductions and renewable energy use. The transition pathway analysis points out socio-technical issues such as social acceptance of large-scale new infrastructures (e.g., wind, cables). The energy system optimizations indicate that most of the investments needed for the zero-emission pathway until 2050 would take place already by 2030.

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The Impact of Climate Change on the Generation of Hydroelectric Power—A Case Study in Southern Spain

Cited by 27 publications

References 12 publications

Climate change effects on the hydrology of the headwaters of the Tagus River: implications for the management of the Tagus–Segura transfer

Climate change effects on the hydrology of the headwaters of the Tagus River: implications for the management of the Tagus–Segura transfer

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

Pathway Analysis of a Zero-Emission Transition in the Nordic-Baltic Region

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