The impact of agricultural input costs on food prices in Turkey: A case study

Işik, Sefa; Özbuğday, Fatih Cemil

doi:10.17221/260/2020-agricecon

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The literature provides some insights into the possible reasons for the periods with bubbles and their relation to Turkey. Food production, CDS spreads, interest rates, fertilizer prices, and raw-material prices, exchange rates, oil prices, fastest growth in exports, low productivity, rising input costs (Agriculture-PPI 2015 = 100 April 2013 index value is 804.64), inflation expectations, demand-side pressures of a growing population, changing consumer preferences, and supply-side elements such as low productivity, dominant players in the retail industry preventing price competitiveness, cost of capital, migration and aging rural populations, low productivity, agricultural education, and problems in the food supply chain are some of the reasons for the formation of food price bubbles [92][93][94][95][96][97][98]. Exchange rates have a strong impact on domestic food prices in countries that are highly dependent on imports of energy, fertilizers, and chemicals [99].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Preventing increases in agricultural input costs [95]; • By implementing necessary measures such as structural reform, Turkey can reduce the country risk that arises in economic, political, and financial areas, and thus, the adverse effects of country risk on domestic food prices can be eliminated [93]; It is recommended that Turkey considers the production of organic fertilizers and augments the domestic fertilizer supply in the context of food production [93].…”

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confidence: 99%

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Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF

Özcan

2023

Sustainability

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Food price bubbles are a phenomenon in which the cost of some food items or food commodities climbs quickly and unreasonably before collapsing due to reasons such as speculation, supply and demand imbalances, meteorological occurrences, and governmental actions. Governments and academics keep an eye on food prices to spot and address these bubbles. The aim of this paper is to analyze the food price bubble phenomenon despite the global slowdown by examining its origins, consequences, and policy solutions. The study’s contribution lies in its investigation of the presence of a potential bubble formation in food prices, which have experienced a surge globally and particularly in Turkey in recent years. The research examines the behavior of bubble formation in food prices in Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF between 1992 and 2022 using the ADF, SADF, and GSADF tests. These tests can help identify when asset prices deviate significantly from their fundamental values and may be at risk of a sharp correction. The TUR, FAO, OECD, and IMF variables all show distinct bubble formations, with the TUR variable having 130 periods from 1995 to 2006, the FAO having 8 price bubble occurrences, the OECD having 12 different bubble formations, and the IMF having 4 distinct bubble formations. The results indicate the existence of food price bubbles that demonstrate disparities from their inherent values grounded in market fundamentals.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF

Özcan

2023

Sustainability

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“…In addition to the ARDL approach, this study also employs the fully modified least squares (FMOLS), dynamic least squares (DOLS), and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) methods. These methods were utilized to test the consistency and robustness of the ARDL model's long-term elasticities [37]. Furthermore, the FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR approaches eliminate the endogeneity bias and serial correlation issues [38,39].…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Demand for Beef Imports in Indonesia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

Hadi

Chung

2022

Agriculture

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Import policies for food products, including beef, need to support national food security while protecting the domestic food industry. This study aims to develop a model for beef import demand of Indonesia. The study employed annual secondary data from various sources from 1990 to 2019. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the error correction models (ECM) were adapted for predicting the long-run and short-run beef import demand, by considering income growth, domestic production, relative price, and exchange rate. The bounds test showed that gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita, domestic beef production, and the exchange rate had no significant effect on the beef import demand in the long run; nonetheless, the relative beef price between local and international market had a considerable impact (5.353%). In the short run, GDP growth per capita and domestic beef production significantly affected beef import demand (0.036% and −0.9%, respectively). Error correction term (ECT) corrected the disequilibrium of the import demand model in current year towards the following year (17.60%). This finding is confirmed by the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) methods. Ultimately, this study can serve as an instrument for formulating policy related to beef imports in Indonesia.

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“…Yet, Yang et al. (2015), Işik and Ozbugday (2021) discovered that the unusual surge and fall in food prices experienced in some countries did not follow a consistent pattern throughout the world. This may indicate that there is no convergence of food price inflation worldwide.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food price inflation convergence: an international study from 2000–2020

Fan

Wang

et al. 2022

BFJ

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the food price inflation convergence across countries and regions. This study aims to identify the key drivers for food price inflation across countries and regions.Design/methodology/approachWe test whether the international food price inflations are converging over time using the log t convergence test and clustering analysis. These inflation data are collected from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.FindingsThe test results suggest that there is little evidence of overall convergence. Then we utilize a clustering algorithm and the results support that there is strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs. In addition, we examine the transition path of the various convergence and find that social stability regulation together with economic conditions are important determinants of convergence club membership.Research limitations/implicationsFirst off, local conflict and economic environment result in food supply and prices, but this study is limited to the dynamics of prices.Practical implicationsFood prices inflations are not converging to single common price inflation, but there exist subgroups of countries or regions within which food price inflation tends to converge. These groupings tend to be related to the economic development and social stability of countries and regions.Social implicationsThe authors believe that any analysis of food price inflations that does not consider the political environment and economic conditions dynamics will likely be omitting important components of food price dynamics.Originality/valueThis study uses a unique data set covering 198 countries and regions and provides a comprehensive analysis of international food price inflation convergence identifying the key drivers of convergence club membership.

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The impact of agricultural input costs on food prices in Turkey: A case study

Cited by 10 publications

References 20 publications

Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF

Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF

Estimation of Demand for Beef Imports in Indonesia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

Food price inflation convergence: an international study from 2000–2020

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