Estimation of Demand for Beef Imports in Indonesia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

Abstract

Import policies for food products, including beef, need to support national food security while protecting the domestic food industry. This study aims to develop a model for beef import demand of Indonesia. The study employed annual secondary data from various sources from 1990 to 2019. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the error correction models (ECM) were adapted for predicting the long-run and short-run beef import demand, by considering income growth, domestic production, relative price, and exchange rate. The bounds test showed that gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita, domestic beef production, and the exchange rate had no significant effect on the beef import demand in the long run; nonetheless, the relative beef price between local and international market had a considerable impact (5.353%). In the short run, GDP growth per capita and domestic beef production significantly affected beef import demand (0.036% and −0.9%, respectively). Error correction term (ECT) corrected the disequilibrium of the import demand model in current year towards the following year (17.60%). This finding is confirmed by the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) methods. Ultimately, this study can serve as an instrument for formulating policy related to beef imports in Indonesia.

Moderating role of policy incentive and perceived cost in relationship of environmental awareness and green consumption behavior

“…TPB addresses a limitation of TRA by considering both perceived behavioral control and behavioral intentions as factors influencing individuals’ actual behaviors [ 18 ]. TRA assumes that people typically act rationally, and intentions to perform or abstain from a specific behavior is the immediate factor of that action [ 19 ]. Empirical evidences strongly support TPB, and it has emerged as one of the most influential and widely used conceptual framework for studying human behavior [ 20 , 21 ].…”

“…People who are environmentally aware tend to value nature, conservation, and sustainability. They may also perceive it an ethical obligation to preserve the environment for future generations [ 19 ]. These pro-environmental values and attitudes can translate into intentions to engage in environmentally responsible behaviors, such as reducing waste, conserving energy, and supporting sustainable practices [ 26 ].…”

Dependency on beef import to support food security in Indonesia

“…In the 2001-2010 period, the IDR value of Indonesian beef imports showed an increase, with the highest value in 2010 of 22,42 percent, while in the 2011-2022 period, the value of import dependence decreased from 2011 of 15,11 to 7,83 in 2015, then increased again until 2020. The highest value of dependence on Indonesian beef imports occurred in 2020; this could be due to the Covid 19 pandemic, which has caused a decrease in national beef consumption in Indonesia [22].…”

Assessing the Welfare Effects of Rising Prices of Animal-Derived Sources of Food on Urban Households in Indonesia

“…Indonesia is a developing country that depends heavily on international trade of agricultural products to meet the nutritional demands of its population (Forgenie and Khoiriyah 2023). Major staple food items such as cereals, cassava, soybean, sugar, and beef are imported (Hadi andChung 2022, Warr andYusuf 2014). Major staple food items such as cereals, cassava, soybean, sugar, and beef are imported (Hadi andChung 2022, Warr andYusuf 2014).…”

“…Major staple food items such as cereals, cassava, soybean, sugar, and beef are imported (Hadi andChung 2022, Warr andYusuf 2014). Major staple food items such as cereals, cassava, soybean, sugar, and beef are imported (Hadi andChung 2022, Warr andYusuf 2014). Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Indonesia was experiencing rapid economic growth, however, recent statistics reveal that GDP in the first quarter of 2020 has slowed down to around 3% (Paramashanti 2020).…”