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Artificial liver support system (ALSS) therapy is widely used in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). We aimed to develop a predictive score to identify the subgroups who may benefit from plasma exchange (PE)-centered ALSS therapy. A total of 601 patients were retrospectively enrolled and randomly divided into a derivation cohort of 303 patients and a validation cohort of 298 patients for logistic regression analysis, respectively. Five baseline variables, including liver cirrhosis, total bilirubin, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, infection and hepatic encephalopathy, were found independently associated with 3-month mortality. A predictive PALS model and the simplified PALS score were developed. The predicative value of PALS score (AUROC = 0.818) to 3-month prognosis was as capable as PALS model (AUROC = 0.839), R score (AUROC = 0.824) and Yue-Meng’ score (AUROC = 0.810) (all p > 0.05), and superior to CART model (AUROC = 0.760) and MELD score (AUROC = 0.765) (all p < 0.05). The PALS score had significant linear correlation with 3-month mortality (R2 = 0.970, p = 0.000). PALS score of 0–2 had both sensitivity and negative predictive value of > 90% for 3-month mortality, while PALS score of 6–9 had both specificity and positive predictive value of > 90%. Patients with PALS score of 3–5 who received 3–5 sessions of ALSS therapy had much lower 3-month mortality than those who received 1–2 sessions (32.8% vs. 59.2%, p < 0.05). The more severe patients with PALS score of 6–9 could still benefit from ≥ 6 sessions of ALSS therapy compared to ≤ 2 sessions (63.6% vs. 97.0%, p < 0.05). The PALS score could predict prognosis reliably and conveniently. It could identify the subgroups who could benefit from PE-centered ALSS therapy, and suggest the reasonable sessions.Trial registration: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR2000032055. Registered 19th April 2020, http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=52471.
Artificial liver support system (ALSS) therapy is widely used in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). We aimed to develop a predictive score to identify the subgroups who may benefit from plasma exchange (PE)-centered ALSS therapy. A total of 601 patients were retrospectively enrolled and randomly divided into a derivation cohort of 303 patients and a validation cohort of 298 patients for logistic regression analysis, respectively. Five baseline variables, including liver cirrhosis, total bilirubin, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, infection and hepatic encephalopathy, were found independently associated with 3-month mortality. A predictive PALS model and the simplified PALS score were developed. The predicative value of PALS score (AUROC = 0.818) to 3-month prognosis was as capable as PALS model (AUROC = 0.839), R score (AUROC = 0.824) and Yue-Meng’ score (AUROC = 0.810) (all p > 0.05), and superior to CART model (AUROC = 0.760) and MELD score (AUROC = 0.765) (all p < 0.05). The PALS score had significant linear correlation with 3-month mortality (R2 = 0.970, p = 0.000). PALS score of 0–2 had both sensitivity and negative predictive value of > 90% for 3-month mortality, while PALS score of 6–9 had both specificity and positive predictive value of > 90%. Patients with PALS score of 3–5 who received 3–5 sessions of ALSS therapy had much lower 3-month mortality than those who received 1–2 sessions (32.8% vs. 59.2%, p < 0.05). The more severe patients with PALS score of 6–9 could still benefit from ≥ 6 sessions of ALSS therapy compared to ≤ 2 sessions (63.6% vs. 97.0%, p < 0.05). The PALS score could predict prognosis reliably and conveniently. It could identify the subgroups who could benefit from PE-centered ALSS therapy, and suggest the reasonable sessions.Trial registration: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR2000032055. Registered 19th April 2020, http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=52471.
Background and aimsAcute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterised by acute decompensation of cirrhosis associated with organ failures. We systematically evaluated the geographical variations of ACLF across the world in terms of prevalence, mortality, aetiology of chronic liver disease (CLD), triggers and organ failures.MethodsWe searched EMBASE and PubMed from 3/1/2013 to 7/3/2020 using the ACLF-EASL-CLIF (European Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure) criteria. Two investigators independently conducted the abstract selection/abstraction of the aetiology of CLD, triggers, organ failures and prevalence/mortality by presence/grade of ACLF. We grouped countries into Europe, East/South Asia and North/South America. We calculated the pooled proportions, evaluated the methodological quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and statistical heterogeneity, and performed sensitivity analyses.ResultsWe identified 2369 studies; 30 cohort studies met our inclusion criteria (43 206 patients with ACLF and 140 835 without ACLF). The global prevalence of ACLF among patients admitted with decompensated cirrhosis was 35% (95% CI 33% to 38%), highest in South Asia at 65%. The global 90-day mortality was 58% (95% CI 51% to 64%), highest in South America at 73%. Alcohol was the most frequently reported aetiology of underlying CLD (45%, 95% CI 41 to 50). Infection was the most frequent trigger (35%) and kidney dysfunction the most common organ failure (49%). Sensitivity analyses showed regional estimates grossly unchanged for high-quality studies. Type of design, country health index, underlying CLD and triggers explained the variation in estimates.ConclusionsThe global prevalence and mortality of ACLF are high. Region-specific variations could be explained by the type of triggers/aetiology of CLD or grade. Health systems will need to tailor early recognition and treatment of ACLF based on region-specific data.
BACKGROUND Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by decompensation in individuals with chronic liver disease, generally secondary to one or more extra-hepatic organ failures, implying an elevated mortality rate. Acute decompensation (AD) is the term used for one or more significant consequences of liver disease in a short time and is the most common reason for hospital admission in cirrhotic patients. The European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic-Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) Group modified the intensive care Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score into CLIF-SOFA, which detects the presence of ACLF in patients with or without AD, classifying it into three grades . AIM To investigate the role of the EASL-CLIF definition for ACLF and the ability of CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD scores for prognosticating ACLF or AD. METHODS This study is a literature review using a standardized search method, conducted using the steps following the guidelines for reporting systematic reviews set out by the PRISMA statement. For specific keywords, relevant articles were found by searching PubMed, ScienceDirect, and BioMed Central-BMC. The databases were searched using the search terms by one reviewer, and a list of potentially eligible studies was generated based on the titles and abstracts screened. The data were then extracted and assessed on the basis of the Reference Citation Analysis ( ). RESULTS Most of the included studies used the EASL-CLIF definition for ACLF to identify cirrhotic patients with a significant risk of short-term mortality. The primary outcome in all reviewed studies was mortality. Most of the study findings were based on an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, which revealed that CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD scores were preferable to other models predicting 28-d mortality. Their AUROC scores were higher and able to predict all-cause mortality at 90, 180, and 365 d. A total of 50 articles were included in this study, which found that the CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C AD scores in more than half of the articles were able to predict short-term and long-term mortality in patients with either ACLF or AD. CONCLUSION CLIF-SOFA score surpasses other models in predicting mortality in ACLF patients, especially in the short-term. CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD are accurate short-term and long-term mortality prognosticating scores.
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