The ‘hit’ phenomenon: a mathematical model of human dynamics interactions as a stochastic process

Abstract

A mathematical model for the 'hit' phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as a stochastic process of human dynamics interactions. The model uses only the advertisement budget time distribution as an input, and word-of-mouth (WOM), represented by posts on social network systems, is used as data to make a comparison with the calculated results. The unit of time is days. The WOM distribution in time is found to be very close to the revenue distribution in time. Calculations for the Japanese motion picture market based on the mathematical model agree well with the actual revenue distribution in time.

Museos sociales. Perfiles museísticos en <i>Twitter</i> y <i>Facebook</i> 2012-2013

“…La utilización de Twitter, y el volumen del flujo de tuits para predecir el comportamiento social es algo extendido y suele recurrirse a él para mediciones sociales diversas, predicción de taquillas cinematográficas (Ishii et al, 2012), elecciones políticas (Tumasjan et al, 2010) -investigación fuertemente rebatida en la actualidad-o audiencias televisivas (Congosto et al, 2013). No es de extrañar que también se haya propuesto en el entorno museístico.…”

Model of Market Share Affected by Social Media Reputation

“…In this study, we assume that the product characteristics unobserved by econometrician including social media reputation effects. Using sociophysics approach, we can calculate reputation of product on social media quantitatively using the mathematical model for hit phenomena [3]. According to this theory, we can calculate the reputation of product or topic using the following formulae,…”

“…Among them, we employ here the mathematical theory for hit phenomena. [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14].…”

Consideration of Reputation Prediction of Ladygaga Using the Mathematical Model of Hit Phenomena

“…[35] esponds to the each advertisement and Concert's counts and can be determined by using the random number technique introduced in Ref. [1]. The actual formula e the SNS response are introduced in detail in Ref.…”