Abstract. The characterization of triggering dynamics and
remobilized volumes is crucial to the assessment of associated lahar hazards.
We propose an innovative treatment of the cascading effect between tephra
fallout and lahar hazards based on probabilistic modelling that also
accounts for a detailed description of source sediments. As an example, we
have estimated the volumes of tephra fallout deposit that could be
remobilized by rainfall-triggered lahars in association with two eruptive
scenarios that have characterized the activity of the La Fossa cone (Vulcano,
Italy) in the last 1000 years: a long-lasting Vulcanian cycle and a
subplinian eruption. The spatial distribution and volume of deposits that
could potentially trigger lahars were analysed based on a combination of
tephra fallout probabilistic modelling (with TEPHRA2), slope-stability
modelling (with TRIGRS), field observations, and geotechnical tests. Model
input data were obtained from both geotechnical tests and field measurements
(e.g. hydraulic conductivity, friction angle, cohesion, total unit weight of
the soil, and saturated and residual water content). TRIGRS simulations show how
shallow landsliding is an effective process for eroding pyroclastic deposits
on Vulcano. Nonetheless, the remobilized volumes and the deposit thickness
threshold for lahar initiation strongly depend on slope angle, rainfall
intensity, grain size, friction angle, hydraulic conductivity, and the
cohesion of the source deposit.