The hidden burden of Chikungunya in central Mexico: results of a small-scale serosurvey

Cortes-Escamilla, Anais; López‐Gatell, Hugo; Sánchez-Alemán, Miguel Ángel; Hegewisch-Taylor, Jennifer; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Alpuche-Aranda, Celia

doi:10.21149/9149

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Most knowledge on the early dynamics of CHIKV transmission in the Americas has been derived from passive case-patient reporting [ 3 , 25 – 29 ] or cross-sectional serological surveys [ 6 – 9 , 11 – 13 , 26 , 30 – 32 ]. Passive national surveillance systems based on mandatory case reporting have low sensitivity because patients misdiagnosed as having another disease are not reported, and those less symptomatic may not seek health care [ 33 – 35 ]; the former is especially important for CHIKV infection, which is easily confused with dengue or even Zika [ 36 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in the first year after its introduction in Brazil: A cohort study in an urban community

Anjos,

Portilho,

Jacob-Nascimento

et al. 2023

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

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Background The first chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreaks during the modern scientific era were identified in the Americas in 2013, reaching high attack rates in Caribbean countries. However, few cohort studies have been performed to characterize the initial dynamics of CHIKV transmission in the New World. Methodology/Principal findings To describe the dynamics of CHIKV transmission shortly after its introduction in Brazil, we performed semi-annual serosurveys in a long-term community-based cohort of 652 participants aged ≥5 years in Salvador, Brazil, between Feb-Apr/2014 and Nov/2016-Feb/2017. CHIKV infections were detected using an IgG ELISA. Cumulative seroprevalence and seroincidence were estimated and spatial aggregation of cases was investigated. The first CHIKV infections were identified between Feb-Apr/2015 and Aug-Nov/2015 (incidence: 10.7%) and continued to be detected at low incidence in subsequent surveys (1.7% from Aug-Nov/2015 to Mar-May/2016 and 1.2% from Mar-May/2016 to Nov/206-Feb/2017). The cumulative seroprevalence in the last survey reached 13.3%. It was higher among those aged 30–44 and 45–59 years (16.1% and 15.6%, respectively), compared to younger (12.4% and 11.7% in <15 and 15–29 years, respectively) or older (10.3% in ≥60 years) age groups, but the differences were not statistically significant. The cumulative seroprevalence was similar between men (14.7%) and women (12.5%). Yet, among those aged 15–29 years, men were more often infected than women (18.1% vs. 7.4%, respectively, P = 0.01), while for those aged 30–44, a non-significant opposite trend was observed (9.3% vs. 19.0%, respectively, P = 0.12). Three spatial clusters of cases were detected in the study site and an increased likelihood of CHIKV infection was detected among participants who resided with someone with CHIKV IgG antibodies. Conclusions/Significance Unlike observations in other settings, the initial spread of CHIKV in this large urban center was limited and focal in certain areas, leaving a high proportion of the population susceptible to further outbreaks. Additional investigations are needed to elucidate the factors driving CHIKV spread dynamics, including understanding differences with respect to dengue and Zika viruses, in order to guide prevention and control strategies for coping with future outbreaks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in the first year after its introduction in Brazil: A cohort study in an urban community

Anjos,

Portilho,

Jacob-Nascimento

et al. 2023

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

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“…While certain studies conducted in Mexico revealed that specific climate factors are strong drivers for these ABDs 25 – 27 , other studies suggested socioeconomic factors were the strongest predictors in the spread of arthropod-borne (or arbovirus) transmission in some parts of Mexico 28 – 30 . Despite Mexico being a country highly endemic to CHIKV, DENV, and ZIKV 4 , 5 , 31 , 32 , there is no national study to date in which long-time series data have been combined with spatiotemporal socio-demographic risk factors and climatic parameters. Understanding the spatiotemporal and socio-demographic risk factors (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused by Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico

et al. 2022

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Background The intensity of transmission of Aedes-borne viruses is heterogeneous, and multiple factors can contribute to variation at small spatial scales. Illuminating drivers of heterogeneity in prevalence over time and space would provide information for public health authorities. The objective of this study is to detect the spatiotemporal clusters and determine the risk factors of three major Aedes-borne diseases, Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Dengue virus (DENV), and Zika virus (ZIKV) clusters in Mexico. Methods We present an integrated analysis of Aedes-borne diseases (ABDs), the local climate, and the socio-demographic profiles of 2469 municipalities in Mexico. We used SaTScan to detect spatial clusters and utilize the Pearson correlation coefficient, Randomized Dependence Coefficient, and SHapley Additive exPlanations to analyze the influence of socio-demographic and climatic factors on the prevalence of ABDs. We also compare six machine learning techniques, including XGBoost, decision tree, Support Vector Machine with Radial Basis Function kernel, K nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural network to predict risk factors of ABDs clusters. Results DENV is the most prevalent of the three diseases throughout Mexico, with nearly 60.6% of the municipalities reported having DENV cases. For some spatiotemporal clusters, the influence of socio-economic attributes is larger than the influence of climate attributes for predicting the prevalence of ABDs. XGBoost performs the best in terms of precision-measure for ABDs prevalence. Conclusions Both socio-demographic and climatic factors influence ABDs transmission in different regions of Mexico. Future studies should build predictive models supporting early warning systems to anticipate the time and location of ABDs outbreaks and determine the stand-alone influence of individual risk factors and establish causal mechanisms.

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Influence of herd immunity in the cyclical nature of arboviruses

Ribeiro

Hamer

Diallo

et al. 2020

Current Opinion in Virology

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The hidden burden of Chikungunya in central Mexico: results of a small-scale serosurvey

Cited by 5 publications

References 18 publications

Dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in the first year after its introduction in Brazil: A cohort study in an urban community

Dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in the first year after its introduction in Brazil: A cohort study in an urban community

Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused by Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico

Influence of herd immunity in the cyclical nature of arboviruses

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