The Great São Paulo Homicide Drop

Goertzel, Ted G.; Kahn, Túlio

doi:10.1177/1088767909348711

Cited by 43 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Moreover, these processes differed from broader national dynamics and were inherently urban in nature, both in the mobilisation that supported early reforms, and where policy impacts occurred. 3 While related to findings about the role of the security sector regarding community policing, handgun restrictions and similar urban policy interventions (Felbab-Brown, 2011;Goertzel and Kahn, 2009), our analysis locates this in a broader context of what we term institutionalised policy change. Thus we situate our analytical position at a middle ground between macro-level explanations encompassing broad social processes such as civilisation, shifts in political regimes, economic development or changes in demographic structure (Eisner, 2003;Pinker, 2011); and microlevel accounts of specific policy measures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Understanding unlikely successes in urban violence reduction

Hoelscher

Nussio

2015

Urban Studies

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The problems of violence in Latin America are often reiterated, yet understanding how and why violence declines is far less common. While urban violence takes different forms and has a range of motivations, we suggest that strengthening political and social institutions are important in violence reduction processes. We examine this using a comparative analysis of two cities which have recently seen unusual and marked reductions in lethal violence: Bogotá in Colombia and Recife in Brazil. Drawing on primary data collection, the case studies suggest that novel leaders who take advantage of critical junctures can deliver unexpected improvements to public security; and improvements are linked with institutionalising progressive security policies, increasing accountability of political institutions, and social reforms encouraging civic values and commitments to non-violence. While findings are specific to these two cases, they may plausibly apply to a broader range of cities, such that commitments to improve public policy and political institutions can overcome structural risk factors that foster violence.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Understanding unlikely successes in urban violence reduction

Hoelscher

Nussio

2015

Urban Studies

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“…Dentre as análises existentes a fim de entender esse fenômeno no MSP, observam-se aquelas destinadas a investigar o peso de mudanças no âmbito da segurança pública e no sistema de justiça, como investimentos públicos na área, modelo e qualidade da atuação policial, restrição na circulação de armas de fogo e encarceramento (Cerqueira; Mello, 2012;Goertzel;Kahn, 2009;Nadanovsky, 2009;Peres et al, 2011bPeres et al, , 2012. Além disso, alterações demográficas e socioeconômicas ocorridas no período são apontadas por alguns autores como possíveis fatores relacionados à queda na TMH no MSP Schneider, 2007;Peres et al, 2011bPeres et al, , 2012.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

A ocorrência de homicídios no município de São Paulo: mutações e tensões a partir das narrativas de moradores e profissionais

et al. 2017

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This article aims to describe the changes in the number of murders in the municipality of São Paulo (MSP) in the last few decades, along with the factors connected to those changes, through the point of view of residents and professionals. It focuses on the transition between high murders rates and its sharp decline observed after the 2000s. Therefore, this paper brings a qualitative study that tries to explore, through the narratives of locals from two São Paulo districts, Cidade Tiradentes and Jardim Ângela, the perceptions of different types of violence acts, especially the ones related to cases of homicide (and the increase or decrease movements of their rates), such as the connected factors and possible explanations to this scenario. In general, most of the interviewees notice, in their everyday life, the decrease in the number of assassinations (although this doesn't mean the absence of tension), and they explain it with controversial arguments, mostly concerning improvements in life quality; community mobilization; police advances; and transformations in the acceptance of criminality.

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“…Studies show that this policy has been effective in reducing homicides resulting from both drug-related crimes and domestic disputes (Goertzel and Kahn 2009;Kahn and Zanetic 2005). Furthermore, the impact of the Brazil's 2003 National Disarmament Act was particularly pronounced in São Paulo.…”

Section: Theoretical Background Deterrence Information and The Dropmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The decline is so remarkable that some authors have called it "the great homicide drop" (Goertzel and Kahn 2009). The city of São Paulo, which is currently home to about 11 million inhabitants, provides a telling example.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a move coherent with the basic tenets of the economics of crime (e.g., Becker 1968;Cornish and Clarke 2014), the administration increased the certainty and the intensity of punishment to discourage potential offenders. Among other measures, the government implemented strict gun control policies (Goertzel and Kahn 2009), raised incarceration rates (Salla 2007), and imposed harsher sentences on those convicted of a crime (Carvalho and Freire 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating the Effect of Homicide Prevention Strategies in São Paulo, Brazil: A Synthetic Control Approach

Freire

2022

Lat. American Res. Rev.

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Although Brazil remains severely affected by civil violence, the state of São Paulo has made significant inroads into fighting criminality. In the last decade, São Paulo has witnessed a 70 percent decline in homicide rates, a result that policy-makers attribute to a series of crimereducing measures implemented by the state government. While recent academic studies seem to confirm this downward trend, no estimation of the total impact of state policies on homicide rates currently exists. The present article fills this gap by employing the synthetic control method to compare these measures against an artificial São Paulo. The results indicate a large drop in homicide rates in actual São Paulo when contrasted with the synthetic counterfactual, with about 20,000 lives saved during the period. The theoretical usefulness of the synthetic control method for public policy analysis, the role of the Primeiro Comando da Capital as a moderating variable, and the practical implications of the security measures taken by the São Paulo State government are also discussed.Apesar de o Brasil permanecer gravemente afetado pela violência civil, o estado de São Paulo tem realizado progressos significativos no combate ao crime. Na última década, São Paulo testemunhou uma queda de 70% em suas taxas de homicídio, um resultado que formuladores de políticas públicas atribuem a uma série de medidas de redução de criminalidade adotadas pelo governo estadual. Embora estudos acadêmicos recentes pareçam confirmar esta tendência de baixa, ainda não há estimativas do impacto total das políticas estatais sobre a taxa de homicídios. O presente artigo visa preencher tal lacuna ao empregar o método de controle sintético para comparar tais medidas contra um São Paulo artificial. Os resultados indicam uma grande queda nas taxas de homicídio quando contrastadas com o contrafactual sintético, com cerca de 20,000 vidas salvas durante o período. A utilidade teórica do controle sintético para a análise de políticas públicas, o papel do Primeiro Comando da Capital como variável moderadora, e as implicações práticas das medidas de segurança adotadas pelo governo do estado de São Paulo também são discutidas.

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The Great São Paulo Homicide Drop

Cited by 43 publications

References 4 publications

Understanding unlikely successes in urban violence reduction

Understanding unlikely successes in urban violence reduction

A ocorrência de homicídios no município de São Paulo: mutações e tensões a partir das narrativas de moradores e profissionais

Evaluating the Effect of Homicide Prevention Strategies in São Paulo, Brazil: A Synthetic Control Approach

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