The Grand Strategies of Small States

Wivel, Anders

doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198840299.013.32

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Shelter theory is recognised as one of the grand theories within small‐state literature in explaining foreign policy strategies of small states (Wivel, 2021), and has been used to explain the policy behaviour of numerous small states, including all five Nordic states, the three Baltic states, Singapore, Armenia and Cuba (see Bailes et al, 2017; Bailes & Thorhallsson, 2017; Thorhallsson & Stude Vidal, 2023).…”

Section: Small States' Theory and Shelter‐seekingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sweden's quest for shelter: ‘Nonalignment' and NATO membership

Thorhallsson,

Stude Vidal

2024

Scand Pol Stud

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This paper posits that, contrary to conventional wisdom, Sweden's decision to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and end its official policy of ‘nonalignment’ is neither very surprising nor radical in nature. Utilising the shelter theory framework, we examine the Swedish case to shed a new light on the economic, societal and political shelter‐seeking policy choices that led to Stockholm's NATO application in May of 2022. The analysis finds that Sweden's established strategy of seeking shelter from Western powers eventually induced and facilitated close military cooperation with NATO—ultimately leading to accession on 7 March 2024. The decision to join the Alliance should, therefore, be understood as a culmination, building on a historically flexible approach to neutrality and previously established shelter arrangements that were deemed in 2022, after Russia's full‐scale invasion of Ukraine and subsequent developments in Finland, to be no longer sufficient in deterring or responding to new threat dynamics. The case indicates that shelter theory accurately captures the foreign policy strategy of a small neutral and later nonaligned state. However, analysing Sweden's move towards NATO within the given framework also presents an opportunity for theory development; specifically, the theory ought to more meticulously examine three small‐state shelter‐seeking features, namely, how societal and economic shelter relations may precede and, therefore, affect political shelter strategies (or vice versa), the role of ‘critical junctures’ in the theory; and finally, how small states may be affected by each other's shelter‐seeking strategies.

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Section: Small States' Theory and Shelter‐seekingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sweden's quest for shelter: ‘Nonalignment' and NATO membership

Thorhallsson,

Stude Vidal

2024

Scand Pol Stud

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“…On the concept of grand strategy, see Wivel (2021). of the Danish Armed Forces in the Arctic (UM, UD & UM 2011, p. 20).…”

Section: Analysis 2: Establishing the Joint Arctic Commandmentioning

confidence: 99%

Creating the Joint Arctic Command: Cutting Cost or Preparing for the Future? Strategic Culture, Arctic Security and Strategic Reasoning within the Kingdom of Denmark

Strandsbjerg,

Dahlberg

2024

Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies

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The article demonstrates that the Danish Armed Forces based its decision to establish the Joint Arctic Command in 2012 on a desire to rationalise and cut defence spending in general rather than in an attempt to strengthen Denmark's military posture in the Artic. We make this argument by employing the concept of strategic culture to make sense of these decisions and to provide an understanding of the overall strategic logic behind Denmark's military presence. Based on eight interviews with key informants involved in the establishment of the new joint command, supplemented with published and other written sources, we argue that cost-cutting arguments weighed heavier than strategic rationales during the process leading up to the creation of the Joint Arctic Command. Using strategic culture as our analytical framework allows us to provide an alternative explanation to that usually found in the literature, in which the establishment of JACO is held to be an index of a stronger Arctic focus in Danish foreign and security policy. This analysis prompts further consideration of what we can expect from the Danish Armed Forces in the years to come.

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“…The adage "No plan survives first contact with the enemy" is especially true for small states. Thus, small states tend to be reactive rather than proactive in foreign and security affairs (Wivel, 2021). However, reactiveness conspires against consistency.…”

Section: In Defense Of Unscripted Grand Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Articulating a Philippine grand strategy: Policy continuities on the South China Sea

Ibarra

2024

Asian Politics and Policy

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Does the Philippines have a grand strategy? The question is biased in favor of a negative answer. Odds are stacked against detecting a grand strategy in non‐great‐power states. Operationalizing grand strategy as a consistent pattern of behavior reduces bias, but odds are also stacked against observing policy continuities in the Philippines. Increasing the level of analysis, emphasizing outcomes over intentions, and enlarging the time scale can help. Applying these analytical techniques, I argue that a Philippine grand strategy is evident in continuities in the country's foreign and security policies on the South China Sea from 1995 to 2022 under the successive administrations of Ramos, Estrada, Arroyo, Aquino III, and Duterte. The grand strategy has five component policies: (1) bilateral diplomacy with China, (2) multilateral diplomacy through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), (3) grounding in the law of the sea, (4) maintaining the alliance with the US, and (5) modernizing the military.

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The Grand Strategies of Small States

Cited by 10 publications

References 13 publications

Sweden's quest for shelter: ‘Nonalignment' and NATO membership

Sweden's quest for shelter: ‘Nonalignment' and NATO membership

Creating the Joint Arctic Command: Cutting Cost or Preparing for the Future? Strategic Culture, Arctic Security and Strategic Reasoning within the Kingdom of Denmark

Articulating a Philippine grand strategy: Policy continuities on the South China Sea

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