The geography of climate migration

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.

How well can we predict climate migration? A review of forecasting models

“…Notably, only one model considered conflict. It does so by assuming that conflicts will occur in countries where agricultural goods" prices increase by more than 10%, as compared to a non-climate change scenario (Burzyński et al, 2021). Social inputs tend to capture social networks, or the connections an individual or household has to others at origin or at a potential destination.…”

Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis

“…Studies of exposure to climate change‐induced sea level rise typically project exposure of between 150 and 400 million people globally this century or earlier (Hinkel et al, 2013; Kulp & Strauss, 2019; Neumann et al, 2015), although other studies suggest lower figures (Dasgupta et al, 2007). Building on such findings, others offer projections of sea level rise‐induced migration on global (Burzyński et al, 2021; Lincke & Hinkel, 2021; Nicholls et al, 2011) and regional (Bell et al, 2021; Davis et al, 2018; Milan et al, 2016; Oakes et al, 2016) scales. High‐end global estimates ranging from 70 million (Lincke & Hinkel, 2021) to as many as 187 million by 2100 (Nicholls et al, 2011).…”