The future shocks: On discontinuity and scenario development

Notten, Ph.W.F. van; Sleegers, A.M.; Asselt, M.B.A. van

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.12.003

Cited by 170 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Although these narratives have the potential to repel stakeholders who dismiss doomsday warnings, they can provide a useful and provocative contrast to other storylines, and may create the most unexpected future outcomes of any of the archetypes. Numerous scenarios scholars (e.g., Berkhout et al 2002, van Notten et al 2005 contend that qualitative scenario narratives that forecast both gradual and sudden social change are needed to take into account the surprises and discontinuities that are normal features of past and future trajectories of human civilization. For this reason, the Yahara 2070 scenario Abandonment and Renewal depicts societal and institutional collapse, with significant impacts on both social and environmental variables.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development

Wardropper¹,

Gillon²,

Mase³

et al. 2016

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Contrasting social-ecological scenarios can help stakeholders envision potential futures and navigate change and uncertainty. Scenario developers integrate stakeholder perceptions into storylines to increase scenario relevance and plausibility while relying on archetypes of change from scenario literature to enrich narratives. This research examines the contributions of local perspectives and global archetypes to scenario development through a case study of a regional scenario project, Yahara 2070, in Wisconsin, USA. Interviews with 50 Yahara watershed stakeholders and 5 members of the project's scenario development team were examined to compare themes from scenario archetypes with local perspectives on how change is expected to occur. We next examined how these two sources of inspiration for trajectories of change were used in the development of the Yahara 2070 scenarios. Both global archetypes and local stakeholders emphasized social values, market forces, and policy reform as influences in determining the future, which were reflected in Yahara 2070. However, stakeholders were less likely to mention institutional breakdown, an important theme from the global scenarios literature that was included in Yahara 2070. This research offers a new approach to analyzing similarities and differences between scenarios' narratives and local perspectives. Scenario development may involve tensions between the goals of reflecting stakeholder views and including narratives from the global scenarios literature that may be useful for creating divergent model trajectories and addressing dramatic change into the future. To improve scenario development, scenario projects should document the development process in academic and nonacademic venues, explicitly highlighting sources and constraints in storyline development.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development

Wardropper¹,

Gillon²,

Mase³

et al. 2016

E&S

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In such cases, events are often the proverbial last straw that broke the camel's back.^Along these lines, the fall of the Berlin Wall (a black swan) was preceded by discontinuities in the Soviet system, as for instance by Michael Gorbachev's rise to power and the politics of glasnost and perestroika (ibid.) [67].…”

Section: Discontinuities and Surprises In A World Of Complexitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

et al. 2017

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We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) -or within the condition of post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities -broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is increasingly a societal and even cultural issue -above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented. Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.

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“…Another shortcoming identified in this literature is that scenario development processes have a tendency to overlook surprising developments and discontinuities [17][18][19]. A third problem is that any scenario development approach that relies on the mental models of the analyst will struggle when faced with complex systems.…”

Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Halim

Kwakkel

Tavasszy

2016

Futures

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The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory modeling approach to study future scenarios for the global container network. Using scenario discovery and worst-case discovery, we assess the implications of various uncertain factors on the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam. It is found that overall the competitive position of Rotterdam is quite robust with respect to the various uncertain factors. The main vulnerability is the quality of the hinterland connections. A modest deterioration of the quality of the hinterland connections, resulting in increased travel time, will result in a loss of throughput for Rotterdam.Keywords: scenario discovery, deep uncertainty, container shipping, global freight logistics IntroductionIn the past couple of decades, changes in the global container transport system have happened very rapidly. These changes have affected virtually all actors in the system, but the biggest impact has been on maritime ports. Ports have to be adaptive and resilient in responding to the changes in the global container shipping system. In today's globalized economy, ports need to ensure that they can function robustly, both as a transshipment node and as a gateway node for global trade flows. A failure to respond to changes in a timely manner often results in negative consequences for the port itself, as well as the economy of the region or country to which the port belongs. For example, the recent congestion at ports on the west coast of the US resulted in estimated damages for the economy of roughly 7 billion US dollar [1].Preparing a port for a wide range of possible future developments is a profound challenge. The global container shipping system is composed of many elements, with strong interdependencies. Often, small changes cascade quickly through the system, potentially resulting in substantial changes somewhere quite far removed from the initial small change. For example, recently Ultra Large Carrier Vessels have entered the market. Liner shipping companies have started to form alliances to pursue economies of scale. This in turn affects the frequency of port calls, the port rotation schedule, and the container volumes loaded and unloaded at each port. Changes not only take place on the seaside. Developments in the hinterland, such as the construction of new infrastructures such as road, railways, and intermodal facilities affect transport cost.The ongoing changes on both the seaside and the land size of seaports change the spatial flow of containers globally. The operation of the Trans-Siberian railways is an example of the importance of hinterland infrastructure on global container flows through ports [2]. A similar © 2016 Man...

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The future shocks: On discontinuity and scenario development

Cited by 170 publications

References 18 publications

Local perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development

Local perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development

Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

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