The future scenario of an iconic tree from the Brazilian Cerrado: perspectives on Eremanthus Less. (Asteraceae) conservation

Abstract

Characterized as one of the largest biodiversity hotspots, the Cerrado ecoregion houses a wide variety of endemic species. Several threats, such as agricultural expansion and habitat fragmentation, put the species of the Cerrado ecosystems and biodiversity at risk. The genus Eremanthus is frequent in the Cerrado and suffers from intense anthropogenic pressure due to overexploitation mainly for the construction of fences and extraction of essential oil. Environmental suitability, of the Mid-Holocene, present and future (2070), were estimated for the genus in order to characterize the importance of the climate in the species distribution and to analyse the conservation status. The Species Distribution Modelling showed that most species of Eremanthus presented similarities between the environmental suitability of the present and the Mid-Holocene, enabling the identi cation of areas of environmental stability in OSL areas of campos rupestres. The species of the genus were classi ed as Endangered and Vulnerable according to IUCN criteria, presenting very reduced areas of environmental suitability projected in the future and a low percentage of species in Protected Areas, that may in uence possible extinctions of species in the genus. The approaches in this study provide consistent subsidies to assist in conservation planning.