The Future Prospects of Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations

Verdolini, Elena; Anadón, Laura Díaz; Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina; Reis, Lara Aleluia

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2815367

Cited by 7 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 104 publications

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“…While their panel of experts predict median cost savings around 20%, there is much uncertainty in the predictions, and no technology stands out as receiving consistently better predicted results. Verdolini et al (2018) review expert elicitation studies on energy technology. They conclude that experts mostly believe increased R&D expenditures will reduce technology costs by 2030, and that diminishing returns to R&D are a concern.…”

Section: Effectiveness Of Government Randdmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Policy and Innovation: A Decade of Research

Popp

2019

SSRN Journal

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Encouraging innovation is an important part of environmental policy. A large literature in environmental economics examines the links between environmental policy and innovation. This paper reviews recent literature on green innovation. I highlight major trends in the literature, including an increased number of cross-country studies and a focus on the effect of different policy instruments on innovation. I include a discussion of the justifications and evidence for technology-specific policy incentives and present evidence on the effectiveness of government R&D spending. My review concludes with a discussion of three promising areas for new research on environmental innovation.

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Section: Effectiveness Of Government Randdmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Policy and Innovation: A Decade of Research

Popp

2019

SSRN Journal

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“…Given that different approaches to large-scale CDR are at various stages of maturity, top-down assessments should incorporate recent projections of future costs and performance of both CDR and all competing technologies. Analytic projections of such metrics should be augmented by—and compared with—expert elicitations (e.g., Verdolini et al, 2018 ). These projections should include ranges and probabilities over possible cost and performance parameters that can be used in constructing future scenarios as well.…”

Section: Improving the Integrated Scenario Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal

et al. 2020

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Summary To halt climate change this century, we must reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from human activities to net zero. Any emission sources, such as in the energy or land-use sectors, must be balanced by natural or technological carbon sinks that facilitate CO 2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. Projections of demand for large-scale CDR are based on an integrated scenario framework for emission scenarios composed of emission profiles as well as alternative socio-economic development trends and social values consistent with them. The framework, however, was developed years before systematic reviews of CDR entered the literature. This primer provides an overview of the purposes of scenarios in climate-change research and how they are used. It also introduces the integrated scenario framework and why it came about. CDR studies using the scenario framework, as well as its limitations, are discussed. Possible future developments for the scenario framework are highlighted, especially in relation to CDR.

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“…9,10 To project potential improvements in existing technologies, researchers apply various technology and innovation forecasting methods. 11,12 Besides expert elicitations [13][14][15][16][17][18] and engineering models, [19][20][21][22][23] experience-curve-based cost projections have emerged as a prominent approach to project the future cost of low-carbon…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%