Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal

Schweizer, Vanessa; Ebi, Kristie L.; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Jacoby, Henry D.; Riahi, Keywan; Strefler, Jessica; Toko, Kiyoshi; Ruijven, Bas van; Weyant, John P.

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.08.001

Cited by 19 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…A strength of using the IPCC standardised scenarios (SRES, RCPs, SSPs) is that they facilitate the comparison of BoD across studies. 104 Furthermore, these updated scenarios encompass human factors and sustainability, extending beyond the focus solely on GHG emissions and air pollutants.…”

Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting non-communicable diseases attributable to air pollution in the climate change era: a systematic review

Karim,

Hod,

Wahab

et al. 2024

BMJ Open

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ObjectivesClimate change is a major global issue with significant consequences, including effects on air quality and human well-being. This review investigated the projection of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to air pollution under different climate change scenarios.DesignThis systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 flow checklist. A population-exposure-outcome framework was established. Population referred to the general global population of all ages, the exposure of interest was air pollution and its projection, and the outcome was the occurrence of NCDs attributable to air pollution and burden of disease (BoD) based on the health indices of mortality, morbidity, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost and years lived with disability.Data sourcesThe Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE and EBSCOhost databases were searched for articles published from 2005 to 2023.Eligibility criteria for selecting studiesThe eligible articles were evaluated using the modified scale of a checklist for assessing the quality of ecological studies.Data extraction and synthesisTwo reviewers searched, screened and selected the included studies independently using standardised methods. The risk of bias was assessed using the modified scale of a checklist for ecological studies. The results were summarised based on the projection of the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution.ResultsThis review included 11 studies from various countries. Most studies specifically investigated various air pollutants, specifically particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides and ozone. The studies used coupled-air quality and climate modelling approaches, and mainly projected health effects using the concentration–response function model. The NCDs attributable to air pollution included cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, coronary heart disease and lower respiratory infections. Notably, the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution was projected to decrease in a scenario that promotes reduced air pollution, carbon emissions and land use and sustainable socioeconomics. Contrastingly, the BoD of NCDs was projected to increase in a scenario involving increasing population numbers, social deprivation and an ageing population.ConclusionThe included studies widely reported increased premature mortality, CVD and respiratory disease attributable to PM2.5. Future NCD projection studies should consider emission and population changes in projecting the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution in the climate change era.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42023435288.

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Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting non-communicable diseases attributable to air pollution in the climate change era: a systematic review

Karim,

Hod,

Wahab

et al. 2024

BMJ Open

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“…shift to electric vehicles, lowenergy appliances, adoption of renewables). They are becoming increasingly important and influential in informing climate policy debate and setting research priorities [8,9]. Extending these strategies into the realms of lifestyle could expand the range of transformative solutions modelled, enabling policy makers to consider the influence of both intentions and impact [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Endogenous simulation of low-carbon lifestyle change in global climate mitigation pathways

Pettifor,

Mastrucci,

Wilson

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used to characterise mitigation pathways have very limited or no formal representation of lifestyles and lifestyle change. We demonstrate a novel approach to endogenously simulating low-carbon lifestyle heterogeneity and lifestyle change through soft-coupling with our new empirically-based LIFE model. Coupling LIFE to global IAMs enables dynamic simulation of distinctive lifestyle change contributions to targeted mitigation strategies. We set out the empirical basis of the LIFE model, the methodological steps for soft-coupling to a global IAM, and show results from a test application to the residential sector using the MESSAGEix-Buildings model. A first key insight is that coupling with the LIFE model introduces heterogeneous behaviour between 'engaged’ types, who experience faster and higher reductions in final energy demand compared to ‘disengaged’ types. When we further simulate a widespread shift in normative values, this gap is closed. A second key insight is that drivers of lifestyle change, act differently across ‘Improve’ and ‘Avoid’ dimensions. The ‘disengaged’ types, characterised by lower incomes, are more highly responsive to energy saving ‘Avoid’ behaviours. Our approach demonstrates how improved understanding of lifestyle change dynamics and more realistic, empirically-based quantitative simulations in climate mitigation pathways enriches scientific and policy analysis of how to achieve Paris Climate Agreement goals.

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“…State-of-the-art systems for direct ocean removal with carbon storage (DORCS) use a salt-splitting approach to separate seawater into basic and acidic streams, after which the CO 2 is stripped from the acidic stream. The electrodialysis membrane required for this splitting process are highly energy-intensive and costly 10,20,21,[24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31] . Existing scenarios from integrated assessment modeling have shown that CDR on the order of 100-1000 GtCO 2 would be required by 2100 to stay within the remaining carbon budget consistent with achieving the 1.5°C target 32 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deployment expectations of multi-gigaton scale of carbon dioxide removal could have adverse impacts on global climate system

Liu,

Ampah,

JIN

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The window for limiting global warming to 1.5°C is rapidly closing, necessitating immediate climate action which some have proposed includes deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) at scale. However, CDR is characterized by varying trade-offs and spill-over effects, and an excessive reliance on them to reach climate milestones could affect global Earth system negatively. This study quantitatively investigates the impacts associated with different levels of reliance on negative emissions for Asia’s net zero ambitions. We employ a technology-rich integrated assessment model, i.e., GCAM-TJU, a modified version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with the capability of deploying six different CDR approaches. Different levels of CDR reliance are modeled by varying CDR deployment times, availability, and removal capacities. Key findings are that deploying tens of gigaton scale of negative emissions by mid-century will perpetuate fossil fuel reliance, slow energy transitions and push back net zero timelines. High reliance on CDR also reduces building efficiency improvements and transport electrification rates significantly. Furthermore, timing of net zero for multiple Asian countries is advanced under lower availability of CDR, resulting in lower residual emissions with significant health co-benefits. Regarding land and food, high reliance on CDR leads to significant changes in land use with a severe reduction in cropland. There are potential concerns related to water demands and fertilizer needs under excessive reliance on CDR. Overall, our results show that tens of gigaton scale of negative emissions by mid-century could seriously impede climate goals. Prioritizing non-CDR mitigation strategies through rapid electrification, carbon-neutral/negative fuels (e.g., hydrogen), and efficiency mainstreaming could accelerate decarbonization. We must strive to pursue emission cuts maximally before utilizing negative emissions. While CDR is necessary for delivering the "net" in "net-zero emissions", it is worth exploring strategies that reduce the need for excessive reliance on CDR, while also capitalizing on its advantages when it is most viable.

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Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal

Cited by 19 publications

References 11 publications

Projecting non-communicable diseases attributable to air pollution in the climate change era: a systematic review

Projecting non-communicable diseases attributable to air pollution in the climate change era: a systematic review

Endogenous simulation of low-carbon lifestyle change in global climate mitigation pathways

Deployment expectations of multi-gigaton scale of carbon dioxide removal could have adverse impacts on global climate system

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