The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change

Maiorano, Luigi; Falcucci, Alessandra; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Psomas, Achilleas; Pottier, Julien; Baisero, Daniele; Rondinini, Carlo; Guisan, Antoine; Boitani, Luigi

doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0121

Cited by 97 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…In particular, niche modeling approaches are powerful tools to better predict the spatial distribution of species (Maiorano et al. 2011; Forest et al. 2015) and could help to increase the accuracy of an imputation method based on the relative range size of species.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating data‐deficient species in analyses of evolutionary history loss

Véron

Penone²,

Clergeau

et al. 2016

Ecology and Evolution

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There is an increasing interest in measuring loss of phylogenetic diversity and evolutionary distinctiveness which together depict the evolutionary history of conservation interest. Those losses are assessed through the evolutionary relationships between species and species threat status or extinction probabilities. Yet, available information is not always sufficient to quantify the threat status of species that are then classified as data deficient. Data‐deficient species are a crucial issue as they cause incomplete assessments of the loss of phylogenetic diversity and evolutionary distinctiveness. We aimed to explore the potential bias caused by data‐deficient species in estimating four widely used indices: HEDGE, EDGE, PDloss, and Expected PDloss. Second, we tested four different widely applicable and multitaxa imputation methods and their potential to minimize the bias for those four indices. Two methods are based on a best‐ vs. worst‐case extinction scenarios, one is based on the frequency distribution of threat status within a taxonomic group and one is based on correlates of extinction risks. We showed that data‐deficient species led to important bias in predictions of evolutionary history loss (especially high underestimation when they were removed). This issue was particularly important when data‐deficient species tended to be clustered in the tree of life. The imputation method based on correlates of extinction risks, especially geographic range size, had the best performance and enabled us to improve risk assessments. Solving threat status of DD species can fundamentally change our understanding of loss of phylogenetic diversity. We found that this loss could be substantially higher than previously found in amphibians, squamate reptiles, and carnivores. We also identified species that are of high priority for the conservation of evolutionary distinctiveness.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating data‐deficient species in analyses of evolutionary history loss

Véron

Penone²,

Clergeau

et al. 2016

Ecology and Evolution

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show abstract

“…At the time of writing, we did not have species-specific models of climate change impacts on mammals. The relative contribution and the synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on mammal distributions are of key importance in devising future conservation strategies [45] and will be the focus of our future research.…”

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss

Visconti

Pressey

Giorgini

et al. 2011

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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121

116

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Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.

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“…However, proactive conservation relies on uncertain predictions and assumptions about how many biological and socio-economic parameters unfold and interact (such as future patterns of land use, climate change and species responses to these changes). Methods to incorporate uncertainty in parameters and models are available [19,23], including ensemble modelling [20] and scenario modelling [33]. These methods can be used to identify solutions robust to uncertainty, but if these assumptions prove wrong, conservation efforts could be misallocated to areas and species that do not need them.…”

Section: Reactive and Proactive Conservation Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[31]), including mammals [20,22]. Adding a time dimension to the conservation allocation problem requires planners to identify the appropriate time scale for conservation action, by deciding when to act proactively or reactively.…”

Section: Reactive and Proactive Conservation Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconciling global mammal prioritization schemes into a strategy

Rondinini

Boitani

Rodrigues

et al. 2011

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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The huge conservation interest that mammals attract and the large datasets that have been collected on them have propelled a diversity of global mammal prioritization schemes, but no comprehensive global mammal conservation strategy. We highlight some of the potential discrepancies between the schemes presented in this theme issue, including: conservation of species or areas, reactive and proactive conservation approaches, conservation knowledge and action, levels of aggregation of indicators of trend and scale issues. We propose that recently collected global mammal data and many of the mammal prioritization schemes now available could be incorporated into a comprehensive global strategy for the conservation of mammals. The task of developing such a strategy should be coordinated by a super-partes, authoritative institution (e.g. the International Union for Conservation of Nature, IUCN). The strategy would facilitate funding agencies, conservation organizations and national institutions to rapidly identify a number of short-term and long-term global conservation priorities, and act complementarily to achieve them.

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The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change

Cited by 97 publications

References 67 publications

Integrating data‐deficient species in analyses of evolutionary history loss

Integrating data‐deficient species in analyses of evolutionary history loss

Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss

Reconciling global mammal prioritization schemes into a strategy

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