Integrating data‐deficient species in analyses of evolutionary history loss

Véron, Simon; Penone, Caterina; Clergeau, Philippe; Costa, Gabriel C.; Oliveira, Brunno F.; São-Pedro, Vinícius Avelar; Pavoine, Sandrine

doi:10.1002/ece3.2390

Cited by 21 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Similar to the other components of the ICV, the results of species vulnerability revealed regional differences. Although most species were found to have low threat levels ( (Davidson et al 2009(Davidson et al , 2012, amphibians, reptiles (Veron et al 2016), and fish (Sunday et al 2015). In the ocean, range shifts have been faster than in terrestrial ecosystems (Pinsky et al 2013), and species with lower latitudinal ranges are more vulnerable because they become less able to find spots that fit their thermal preferences (Sunday et al 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social-ecological trends: managing the vulnerability of coastal fishing communities

Silva¹,

Pennino²,

Lopes³

2019

E&S

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The loss of biodiversity, including the collapse of fish stocks, affects the vulnerability of social-ecological systems (SESs) and threatens local livelihoods. Incorporating community-centered indicators and SES drivers and exposures of change into coastal management can help anticipate and mitigate human and/or coastal vulnerability. We have proposed a new index to measure the socialecological vulnerability of coastal fishing communities (Index of Coastal Vulnerability [ICV]) based on species, ecosystem, and social indicators. The ICV varies from 0 (no vulnerability) to 1 (very high vulnerability) and is composed of 3 components: species vulnerability, i.e., fish biological traits; ecosystem vulnerability, i.e., environmental indicators of ecosystem health; and adaptive capacity, i.e., human ability to cope with changes. We tested the ICV of Brazil's 17 coastal states. The average ICV for the Brazilian coast was 0.77, and variation was low among states. More than half of the coastal states revealed very high vulnerability (> 0.8). The ecosystem vulnerability values were worse than the adaptive capacity and species vulnerability values, and the North and Northeast regions were revealed to be vulnerable hot spots. Additionally, we investigated how the ICV related to specific anthropogenic risks, i.e., fish landing richness, fishery instability, market, coastal extension, and coastal population, and found that states with fewer species landings and higher coastal populations presented higher ICVs. At a time when human impacts are overtaking natural processes, understanding how these impacts lead to coastal vulnerability can help improve conservation policies. For this case study, we suggest both fisheries management measures and restoration of sensitive habitats to protect species and decrease vulnerability. The integrated evaluation developed here could be used as a baseline for coastal monitoring and conservation planning and be applied to coastal regions in which governments evaluate both social and biological aspects.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social-ecological trends: managing the vulnerability of coastal fishing communities

Silva¹,

Pennino²,

Lopes³

2019

E&S

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“…The critE EX mode makes use of extinction probabilities that are defined by the IUCN as one of several criteria for species assessments of threatened species. Although widely used in the scientific literature for modeling species' extinction risks (Veron et al 2016, Davis et al 2018, Cooke et al 2019, Oliveira et al 2019, these probabilities are not originally intended for this purpose and per definition only apply to the subset of threatened species that was assessed under criterion E (Akçakaya et al 2006). The simulated extinctions resulting from this approach are alarmingly high and the estimated extinction rates are in most cases more than an order of magnitude higher than those estimated with the empirical EX mode approach, even when accounting for PEX taxa in the latter approach.…”

Section: Comparing Approaches To Simulate Future Extinctionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…• CR: 50% extinction probability within 10 years or 3 generations, whichever is longer (maximum 100 years) IUCN conservation status assessments have been used in numerous scientific studies to project future biodiversity loss (e.g. Ricciardi and Rasmussen 1999, Veron et al 2016, Davis et al 2018, Cooke et al 2019, Oliveira et al 2019. One critical challenge in this approach is to meaningfully transform the IUCN-defined conservation statuses into explicit extinction probabilities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In these previous studies, researchers have applied the extinction probabilities associated with criterion E to model extinction risks for threatened species. Sometimes these risks are also extrapolated to species of the statuses LC and NT in order to make it possible to assign extinction probabilities to these species (Redding and Mooers 2006, Mooers et al 2008, Veron et al 2016, Davis et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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iucn_sim: A new program to simulate future extinctions based on IUCN threat status

Andermann

Faurby

Cooke

et al. 2019

Preprint

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1. The on-going environmental crisis poses an urgent need for predicting future extinction events, which can aid with targeting conservation efforts. Commonly, such predictions are made based on conservation status assessments produced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). However, when researchers apply these conservation status data for predicting future extinctions, important information is often omitted, which can majorly impact the accuracy of these predictions.2. Here we present iucn_sim, a command line program, which implements an improved approach for simulating future extinctions based on IUCN status data.In contrast to previous approaches, iucn_sim explicitly models future changes in conservation status for each species, based on information derived from the IUCN assessment history of the last decades. Additionally the program considers generation length information when translating status information into extinction probabilities, as intended per IUCN definition.3. The program implements a Markov-chain Monte Carlo estimation of extinction rates for each species, based on the simulated extinctions. These estimates inherently contain the chances of conservation status changes and the generation length of each given species.4. Based on an empirical data example including all birds (class Aves), we find that our improved approach has a strong effect on the estimated species-specific extinction rates as well as on the overall number of predicted extinctions. Using simulated data we show that iucn_sim reliably estimates extinction rates with high accuracy if run for a sufficient number of simulations.2

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“…Range-restriction is indeed a key factor of extinction risks. Many research found that low geographic range size was the main predictor of these risks and it is also one of the main factors of the threat status of species in the IUCN RedList (Rodrigues, Pilgrim, Lamoreux, Hoffmann, & Brooks, 2006;Bland, Collen, Orme, & Bielby, 2015;Veron et al, 2016). Like original species, range-restricted species provide unique functions in an ecosystem as well as unique services to humanity (David Mouillot, Graham, et al, 2013;Leitão et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On islands, evolutionary but not functional originality is rare

Véron

Pellens

Kondratyeva

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Functionally and evolutionary original species are those whose traits or evolutionary history are shared by few others in a given set. These original species promote ecosystem multifunctionality, the ability to cope with an uncertain future, future benefits to society and therefore have a high conservation value. A potential signal of their extinction risks is their rarity (stating for geographic range-restriction in this study). On islands, life in isolation conducted to the rise of a multitude of original forms and functions as well as to high rates of endemism. Not only patterns and processes of insular originality are unexplained but the relationship between originality and rarity is still unknown. The aim of this study is to assess how original insular species are, to explore whether original species are rare or not and to investigate the factors that may explain the rarity of original species. We first compared the functional and evolutionary originality of monocotyledon species and whether continental or insular species were more original. We found that species restricted to islands were more original than continental species and, although functionally and evolutionary original species were dissimilar, many occurred on similar territories so that regional conservation strategies may allow to conserve these distinct forms. Yet, evolutionary original species were significantly more range-restricted than those which were distinct in their traits. Reflecting their rarity, evolutionary original species had low dispersal abilities and were found on islands where settlement may have been facilitated. On the opposite, functionally original species could reach a wider set of islands by being transported on long-distances. While some mechanisms may both explain rarity and originality such as extinctions, others may be specific to each of these biodiversity facets, in particular diversification, niche shift and expansion, and dispersal power. Implications for conservation are huge: original species are range-restricted and mostly found in the most threatened systems of the world, i.e. islands, endangering the reservoir of features against an uncertain future.

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Integrating data‐deficient species in analyses of evolutionary history loss

Cited by 21 publications

References 54 publications

Social-ecological trends: managing the vulnerability of coastal fishing communities

Social-ecological trends: managing the vulnerability of coastal fishing communities

iucn_sim: A new program to simulate future extinctions based on IUCN threat status

On islands, evolutionary but not functional originality is rare

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