The Future of Swiss Hydropower - A Review on Drivers and Uncertainties

Barry, Michael; Baur, Patrick; Gaudard, Ludovic; Giuliani, Gianluca; Hediger, Werner; Romerio, Franco; Schillinger, Moritz; Schumann, Renn; Voegeli, Guillaume; Weigt, Hannes

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2663879

Cited by 17 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 44 publications

(45 reference statements)

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“…These quantitative results are also in line with the perception of hydropower stakeholders. In a survey conducted in 2014, Barry et al () find that Swiss stakeholders perceive regulatory‐ and market‐related aspects as the most important drivers for hydropower both in the short and long run, while climate‐related aspects are more important in the long run. We acknowledge, however, that price evolution on long lead times, for example, decades as in our analysis, is highly uncertain because it strongly depends on political and economic decisions, which are intrinsically difficult to predict.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change and Energy Policies on Alpine Hydropower

Anghileri

Botter

Castelletti

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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Scientific literature has mostly focused on the analysis of climate change impacts on hydropower operations, underrating the consequences of energy policies, for example, increase in Variable Renewable Sources (VRSs) and CO2 emission permit price, on hydropower productivity and profitability. We contribute a modeling framework to assess the impacts of different climate change and energy policies on the operations of hydropower reservoir systems in the Alps. Our approach is characterized by the following: (i) the use of a physically explicit hydrological model to assess future water availability; (ii) the consideration of electricity price scenarios obtained from an electricity market model accounting for the future projected European energy strategies; and (iii) the use of optimization techniques to design hydropower system operations in response to the projected changes. Through the application to the Mattmark system, a snow‐ and ice‐dominated hydropower system in Switzerland, we demonstrate how the framework is effective in exploring the sensitivity of Alpine hydropower to changes in water availability and electricity price, in quantifying the uncertainties associated to these projections and in identifying the value of reoperation strategies. Results show that energy policies may have more significant impacts on hydropower operations than climate change and, as such, are worth considering in impact assessments studies. The reduction of water availability due to climate change is expected to induce a loss in electricity production down to −27% by 2050. Changes in electricity price, instead, may have up to 6 times stronger impact than climate change, leading to an increase in hydropower revenue up to about +181%.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change and Energy Policies on Alpine Hydropower

Anghileri

Botter

Castelletti

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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“…In the past, in Switzerland, hydropower has been a thriving economic sector, a source of revenue for shareholders, royalties for public bodies, jobs for the mountain regions and income for the trade balance [65]. Since 2011, the sector has been experiencing a crisis.…”

Section: Electricity Wholesale Market Price: Hydropower Crisismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As pointed out by the European commission (EC), "When we need a lot of electricity in the peak of the day of a cold winter, we must make sure that the clean and cheap electricity from the wind farms in Northern Europe or from the solar farms of Southern Europe can arrive where it is most needed" [67]. This vision is supported by ENTSO-E [65].…”

Section: Prospective Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A Conceptual Framework to Classify and Manage Risk, Uncertainty and Ambiguity: An Application to Energy Policy

Gaudard

Romerio

2020

Energies

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Global issues are such that we should assess and manage a variety of risks and uncertainties. Due to increasing world complexity, the development of an adequate and innovative conceptual framework, anchored in the literature, is required. This article contributes to this effort with an approach particularly relevant to decision-makers dealing with threats of different natures, limited heterogeneous information, and experts' assessments tainted by doubts. Our approach is based on two pillars: 1) An "acuity scale", based on the probability of the occurrence of an event, its impact and the experts' degree of doubt; 2) A taxonomy focused on the concepts of risk, uncertainty, gamble and butterfly ambiguity. Accordingly, we present in a second step the major management implications of such approach. Global policy trends (e.g., sustainability transition) put energy sector decision-makers at the forefront of risk and uncertainty management. Consequently, we carry out a case study focused on Swiss energy policy since the 1980s, including its inception, the turnaround provoked by the Fukushima accident, and the government's 2050 energy strategy. Our investigation shows that the proposed conceptual framework allows for the development of an original analysis of the main drivers that influence governmental policies and stakeholder strategies.

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“…The increasing share of IRE over the last few years in neighboring countries, especially Germany, had a profound impact on market prices and price dynamics. Hydropower operators seek to adopt their operation schemes according to price dynamics to increase efficiency and flexibility [20]. The size and according characteristics of a hydropower reservoir determine the possibilities of adaptation to present and future dynamics in energy prices: large seasonal storage hydropower plants will reallocate their production times to those hours with the highest prices, whereas small hydropower plants often discharge most of the inflow directly, similar to a run-of-the-river plant.…”

Section: Expected Changes In the Energy Market And Hydropower Developmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Decisions concerning the sustainable development of hydropower have to be made with attention to the system boundaries, such as reservoir size and changing market trends, and to the goal of minimizing the environmental effect of hydropower [20]. Within this multi-faceted decision making, WLF play a dual role: firstly, as a response variable of hydropower operation, measured as WLF; secondly, as a predictor variable of environmental effects, measured as changes in benthic algal biomass.…”

Section: Major Aims and Research Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Economic and Ecological Benchmarking for a Sustainable Development of Hydropower

et al. 2016

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Abstract:Hydropower reservoirs play an increasingly important role for the global electricity supply. Reservoirs are anthropogenically-dominated ecosystems because hydropower operations induce artificial water level fluctuations (WLF) that exceed natural fluctuations in frequency and amplitude. These WLF have detrimental ecological effects, which can be quantified as losses to ecosystem primary production due to lake bottoms that fall dry. To allow for a sustainable development of hydropower, these "ecological costs" of WLF need to be weighed against the "economic benefits" of hydropower that can balance and store intermittent renewable energy. We designed an economic hydropower operation model to derive WLF in large and small reservoirs for three different future energy market scenarios and quantified the according losses in ecosystem primary production in semi-natural outdoor experiments. Our results show that variations in market conditions affect WLF differently in small and large hydropower reservoirs and that increasing price volatility magnified WLF and reduced primary production. Our model allows an assessment of the trade-off between the objectives of preserving environmental resources and economic development, which lies at the core of emerging sustainability issues.

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The Future of Swiss Hydropower - A Review on Drivers and Uncertainties

Cited by 17 publications

References 44 publications

A Comparative Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change and Energy Policies on Alpine Hydropower

A Comparative Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change and Energy Policies on Alpine Hydropower

A Conceptual Framework to Classify and Manage Risk, Uncertainty and Ambiguity: An Application to Energy Policy

Integrating Economic and Ecological Benchmarking for a Sustainable Development of Hydropower

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