Climate change affects hydropower production by modifying total annual inflow volumes and their seasonal distribution. Moreover, increasing air temperatures impact electricity consumption and, as a consequence, electricity prices. All together, these phenomena may lead to a loss in revenue. We show that an adequate management of hydropower plants mitigates these losses. These results are obtained by resorting to an interdisciplinary approach integrating hydrology, economy and hydropower management in an interdependent quantitative model
Hydropower represents the world's largest renewable energy source. As a flexible technology, it enhances reliability and security of the electricity system. However, climate change and market liberalization may hinder investment due to the evolution of water runoffs and electricity prices. Both alter expected revenue and bring uncertainty. It increases risk and deters investment. Our research assesses how climate change and market fluctuation affect annual revenue. But this paper focuses on the uncertainty, rather than on forecasting. This transdisciplinary topic is investigated by means of a mixed method, i.e. both quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative approach uses established models in natural sciences and economics. The uncertainty is accounted for by applying various scenarios and various datasets coming from different models. Based on those results, uncertainty is discussed through an analysis discerning three dimensions of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis requires the assessment of a large panel of models and data sets. It is therefore rarely carried out. The originality of the paper also lies on the combination of quantitative established models with a qualitative analysis. The results surprisingly show that the greenhouse gas scenarios may in fact represent a low source of uncertainty, unlike electricity prices. Like forecasting, the main uncertainties are actually case study related and depend on the investigated variables. It is also shown that the nature of uncertainty evolves. Runoff uncertainty goes from variability, i.e. inherent randomness, to epistemic, i.e. limitation of science. The reverse situation occurs with the electricity price. The implications for scientists and policy makers are discussed.
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