The future of hydrology: An evolving science for a changing world

Abstract

[1] Human activities exert global-scale impacts on our environment with significant implications for freshwater-driven services and hazards for humans and nature. Our approach to the science of hydrology needs to significantly change so that we can understand and predict these implications. Such an adjustment is a necessary prerequisite for the development of sustainable water resource management strategies and to achieve long-term water security for people and the environment. Hydrology requires a paradigm shift in which predictions of system behavior that are beyond the range of previously observed variability or that result from significant alterations of physical (structural) system characteristics become the new norm. To achieve this shift, hydrologists must become both synthesists, observing and analyzing the system as a holistic entity, and analysts, understanding the functioning of individual system components, while operating firmly within a well-designed hypothesis testing framework. Cross-disciplinary integration must become a primary characteristic of hydrologic research, catalyzing new research and nurturing new educational models. The test of our quantitative understanding across atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere will necessarily lie in new approaches to benchmark our ability to predict the regional hydrologic and connected implications of environmental change. To address these challenges and to serve as a catalyst to bring about the necessary changes to hydrologic science, we call for a long-term initiative to address the regional implications of environmental change.Citation: Wagener, T

Socio‐hydrology: Use‐inspired water sustainability science for the Anthropocene

“…For example, we should build upon the tradition in hydrology to study relatively pristine systems, in which human actions tend to be incorporated simply through parametric approximation [Wagener et al, 2010], with richer understanding of coupled human-water system dynamics [Fishman et al, 2011]. Likewise, humanistic approaches to the study of water-law, philosophy, history, and ethics-can be further integrated with scientific knowledge [Wescoat, 2013].…”

Forest ecohydrological research in the 21st century: what are the critical needs?

“…Decades of research on hydrologic function in managed and unmanaged forest watersheds has provided a solid foundation for understanding how watersheds respond to observed natural disturbances and management activities (National Research Council of the National Academies, 2008). However, our current observed empirical, conceptual, and predictive understanding may not be sufficient to address contemporary and future issues (Wagener et al 2010). Contemporary and future issues that affect water quantity and quality are primarily a result of the intensification of human activities across the globe (e.g.…”

A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

“…Climate change poses a fundamental new challenge as the models are used for projections of an unknown future with a climate significantly different from the current conditions. Almost all model studies reported in the scientific literature apply models to make projections of climate change and its impacts without any prior assessment of the credibility of the models for simulation beyond current climate conditions (Wagener et al 2010). This is a significant weakness that implies an unknown level of uncertainty of the projections.…”