The future of cold‐adapted plants in changing climates: Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) as a case study

Abstract

Research has shown species undergoing range contractions and/or northward and higher elevational movements as a result of changing climates. Here, we evaluate how the distribution of a group of cold‐adapted plant species with similar evolutionary histories changes in response to warming climates. We selected 29 species of Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) representing the mountain and Arctic biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. For this analysis, 24,755 data points were input into ecological niche models to assess both present fundamental niches and predicted future ranges under climate change scenarios. Comparisons were made across the Northern Hemisphere between all cold‐adapted Micranthes, including Arctic species, montane species, and species defined as narrow endemics. Under future climate change models, 72% of the species would occupy smaller geographical areas than at present. This loss of habitat is most pronounced in Arctic species in general, but is also prevalent in species restricted to higher elevations in mountains. Additionally, narrowly endemic species restricted to high elevations were more susceptible to habitat loss than those species found at lower elevations. Using a large dataset and modeling habitat suitability at a global scale, our results empirically model the threats to cold‐adapted species as a result of warming climates. Although Arctic and alpine biomes share many underlying climate similarities, such as cold and short growing seasons, our results confirm that species in these climates have varied responses to climate change and that key abiotic variables differ between these two habitats.

Drivers of distributions and niches of North American cold‐adapted amphibians: evaluating both climate and land use

“…Inclusion of landscape variables modestly improved model fit but did not contribute much to the models, a pattern consistent with a meta‐analysis of distribution models that found that temperature and precipitation often drive these models (Bradie and Leung 2017). In other cold‐adapted species, there is evidence that landscape factors may be important to distributions (Biella et al 2017, Stubbs et al 2018). In amphibians that are not cold adapted, distributions are related to land cover and climate, including positive interactions with certain types of human modification (Hartel and von Wehrden 2013, Préau et al 2018).…”

Niche dynamics of Memecylon in Sri Lanka: Distribution patterns, climate change effects, and conservation priorities

“…To date, research on Memecylon has mainly focused on its taxonomy, ethnobotany, and evolution (e.g., Amarasinghe, Joshi, et al, 2021;Bremer, 1988;Sivu et al, 2013) (Loarie et al, 2008;Manes et al, 2021;Thuiller et al, 2006) due to occupying specialized niches, limited dispersal capabilities, and reduced adaptive capacities when compared to nonendemic species (Chichorro et al, 2019;Staude et al, 2020). Further, organisms that have more restricted geographical ranges are at greater risk (Elsen & Tingley, 2015;Stubbs et al, 2018) compared to species with large geographical ranges, which may find refugia in parts of their range (Lucas et al, 2019). Therefore, we hypothesized that endemic Memecylon with restricted distribution ranges in Sri Lanka may be at more risk with climate change compared to nonendemics and species with large geographic ranges.…”

Assisted species migration and hybridization to conserve cold‐adapted plants under climate change

“…Climate models predict a likely global increase in temperature of 2°C by 2100 (IPCC 2014). The many negative effects of this increase will be particularly acute in arctic and alpine biomes (Pearson et al 2013), where all species are adapted to the naturally harsh climate (Stubbs et al 2018). Climate-change-related threats affecting the Arctic and the Alpine include the decrease of the predictability of weather patterns, permafrost melting, shrinking land cover due to rising sea levels, expansion of boreal forests and the resulting shrinkage of the tundra and polar desert, loss of relict species, and changes in trophic interactions (Corell 2006;Schmidt 2017).…”