The rate of global climate change is projected to outpace the ability of many natural populations and species to adapt. Assisted migration (AM), which is defined as the managed movement of climate-adapted individuals within or outside the species ranges, is a conservation option to improve species' adaptive capacity and facilitate F I G U R E 2 Flowchart for decisionmaking process involved in applying genomics in assisted migration to natural populations
Highlights • We conducted a systematic review of the literature to determine how biogeographers are including dispersal estimates in species distribution modeling and whether this inclusion substantially influences study outcomes. • Although the majority of the studies ignored dispersal, we found that the inclusion of dispersal estimates has risen from 1991 to 2017. • Few published studies using species distribution modeling approaches to either forecast or hindcast change in species' ranges included dispersal data, suggesting lack of dispersal data for species of concern or computational limitations on the inclusion of these data in models. • Improvements in technology to facilitate empirical data collection and more advanced modeling methodologies are needed to make more realistic spatially explicit species range projection models by including dispersal estimates.
One of the major challenges for conservation physiologists is to determine how current or future environmental conditions relate to the health of animals at the population level. In this study, we measured prevalence of disease, mean condition of the body, and mean resting levels of corticosterone and testosterone in a total of 28 populations across the years 2011 and 2012, and correlated these measures of health to climatic suitability of habitat, using estimates from a model of the ecological niche of the wood frog's geographic range. Using the core-periphery hypothesis as a theoretical framework, we predicted a higher prevalence and intensity of infection of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and ranaviruses, two major amphibian pathogens causing disease, and higher resting levels of circulating corticosterone, an indicator of allostatic load incurred from living in marginal habitats. We found that Bd infections were rare (2% of individuals tested), while infections with ranavirus were much more common: ranavirus-infected individuals were found in 92% of ponds tested over the 2 years. Contrary to our predictions, rates of infection with ranaviruses were positively correlated with quality of the habitat with the highest prevalence at the core of the range, and plasma corticosterone concentrations measured when frogs were at rest were not correlated with quality of the habitat, the prevalence of ranavirus, or the intensity of infection. Prevalence and mean viral titers of ranavirus infection were higher in 2012 than in 2011, which coincided with lower levels of circulating corticosterone and testosterone and an extremely early time of breeding due to relatively higher temperatures during the winter. In addition, the odds of having a ranavirus infection increased with decreased body condition, and if animals had an infection, viral titers were positively correlated to levels of circulating testosterone concentration. By resolving these patterns, experiments can be designed to test hypotheses about the mechanisms that produce them, such as whether transmission of the ranavirus and tolerance of the host are greater or whether virulence is lower in populations within core habitats. While there is debate about which metrics serve as the best bioindicators of population health, the findings of this study demonstrate the importance of long-term monitoring of multiple physiological parameters to better understand the dynamic relationship between the environment and the health of wildlife populations over space and time.
Aquatic ectotherms are predicted to harbour genomic signals of local adaptation resulting from selective pressures driven by the strong influence of climate conditions on body temperature. We investigated local adaptation in redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri) using genome scans for 547 samples from 11 populations across a wide range of habitats and thermal gradients in the interior Columbia River. We estimated allele frequencies for millions of single nucleotide polymorphism loci (SNPs) across populations using low‐coverage whole genome resequencing, and used population structure outlier analyses to identify genomic regions under divergent selection between populations. Twelve genomic regions showed signatures of local adaptation, including two regions associated with genes known to influence migration and developmental timing in salmonids (GREB1L, ROCK1, SIX6). Genotype–environment association analyses indicated that diurnal temperature variation was a strong driver of local adaptation, with signatures of selection driven primarily by divergence of two populations in the northern extreme of the subspecies range. We also found evidence for adaptive differences between high‐elevation desert vs. montane habitats at a smaller geographical scale. Finally, we estimated vulnerability of redband trout to future climate change using ecological niche modelling and genetic offset analyses under two climate change scenarios. These analyses predicted substantial habitat loss and strong genetic shifts necessary for adaptation to future habitats, with the greatest vulnerability predicted for high‐elevation desert populations. Our results provide new insight into the complexity of local adaptation in salmonids, and important predictions regarding future responses of redband trout to climate change.
Adaptive capacity is a topic at the forefront of environmental change research with roots in both social, ecological, and evolutionary science. It is closely related to the evolutionary biology concept of adaptive potential. In this systematic literature review, we: (1) summarize the history of these topics and related fields; (2) assess relationship(s) between the concepts among disciplines and the use of the terms in climate change research, and evaluate methodologies, metrics, taxa biases, and the geographic scale of studies; and (3) provide a synthetic conceptual framework to clarify concepts. Bibliometric analyses revealed the terms have been used most frequently in conservation and evolutionary biology journals, respectively. There has been a greater growth in studies of adaptive potential than adaptive capacity since 2001, but a greater geographical extent of adaptive capacity studies. Few studies include both, and use is often superficial. Our synthesis considers adaptive potential as one process contributing to adaptive capacity of complex systems, notes "sociological" adaptive capacity definitions include actions aimed at desired outcome (i.e., policies) as a system driver whereas "biological" definitions exclude such drivers, and suggests models of adaptive capacity require integration of evolutionary and social-ecological system components.
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