The FORGEX method of rainfall growth estimation II: Description

Reed, Duncan; Faulkner, Duncan; Stewart, Elizabeth

doi:10.5194/hess-3-197-1999

Cited by 39 publications

(36 citation statements)

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“…It uses the FORGEX method for rainfall frequency estimation (Reed et al 1999) followed by the fitting of a depth-duration-frequency (DDF) model. Values of the six parameters for the DDF model are available on a 1-km grid on the FEH CD-ROM, together with software to provide design rainfall estimates for both individual points and catchment areas.…”

Section: United Kingdom: 2) Flood Estimation Handbookmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of rainfall frequency estimation methods

Svensson¹,

Jones²

2010

J Flood Risk Management

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Section: United Kingdom: 2) Flood Estimation Handbookmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of rainfall frequency estimation methods

Svensson¹,

Jones²

2010

J Flood Risk Management

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“…These results also have implications for regional methods of extrapolation. As an illustration, the FORGEX method [16,51,59] uses the series of the annual maximum of the standardized values observed over a measurement network (netmax series) in order to extrapolate the distribution of a target site. This method uses the following observation [52]: if the N stations of the network are independent, then the netmax variable Y has the following distribution: …”

Section: Iii4 Regional Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of a Gaussian copula for multivariate extreme value analysis: Some case studies in hydrology

Renard

Lang

2007

Advances in Water Resources

287

166

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Risk assessment requires a description of the probabilistic properties of hydrological variables. In a number of cases, this description is made on a single variable, whereas most hydrological events are intrinsically multivariate. In this context, copulas have recently received attention in order to derive a multivariate frequency analysis. After a reminder of the general results in the field of multivariate extreme value theory, the paper gives a description of a very simple copula, the Gaussian copula. Four case studies demonstrate its usefulness in the contexts of field significance determination, regional risk analysis, Discharge-Duration-Frequency (QdF) models with design hydrograph derivation and regional frequency analysis. The limitations and potential errors related to this statistical tool are also highlighted.

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“…For each of the 204 sites, annual maxima are found for 1-, 2-, 5-and 10-day rainfall totals. If the ith AM rainfall amount at site j during decade k is denoted by P ij k , then the standardized AM are defined as (after Reed et al (1999))…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961 to 2000

Fowler

Kilsby

2003

Intl Journal of Climatology

308

219

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Multi-day rainfall events are an important cause of recent severe flooding in the UK, and any change in the magnitude of such events may have severe impacts upon urban structures such as dams, urban drainage systems and flood defences and cause failures to occur. Regional pooling of 1-, 2-, 5-and 10-day annual maxima for 1961 to 2000 from 204 sites across the UK is used in a standard regional frequency analysis to produce generalized extreme value growth curves for long return-period rainfall events for each of nine defined climatological regions. Temporal changes in 1-, 2-, 5-and 10-day annual maxima are examined with L-moments using both a 10 year moving window and the fixed decades of 1961-70, 1971-80, 1981-90 and 1991-2000. A bootstrap technique is then used to assess uncertainty in the fitted decadal growth curves and to identify significant trends in both distribution parameters and quantile estimates.There has been a two-part change in extreme rainfall event occurrence across the UK from 1961 to 2000. Little change is observed at 1 and 2 days duration, but significant decadal-level changes are seen in 5-and 10-day events in many regions. In the south of the UK, growth curves have flattened and 5-and 10-day annual maxima have decreased during the 1990s. However, in the north, the 10-day growth curve has steepened and annual maxima have risen during the 1990s. This is particularly evident in Scotland. The 50 year event in Scotland during 1961-90 has become an 8-year, 11-year and 25-year event in the East, South and North Scotland pooling regions respectively during the 1990s. In northern England the average recurrence interval has also halved. This may have severe implications for design and planning practices in flood control.

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The FORGEX method of rainfall growth estimation II: Description

Cited by 39 publications

References 0 publications

Review of rainfall frequency estimation methods

Review of rainfall frequency estimation methods

Use of a Gaussian copula for multivariate extreme value analysis: Some case studies in hydrology

A regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961 to 2000

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