The European Monetary System 1979–84: An Assessment

Strategies for Monetary Integration Revisited

“…The consensus view (Gros and 'l'hygcsen, 1988;Giavazzi et al, 1988;de Grauwe and Peeters, 1989) which has now emerged is that the EMS has indeed succeeded in large measure according to this criterion. The earlier findings of Ungerer et al (1983) and Zis (1984) have been confirmed by later and in some cases more wphisticatcd tests (Ungerer elal., 1986;Artis and Taylor, 1988). Despite the various realignments within the ERM, the intra-ERM exchange rates of currencies have becn less volatile in both nominal and real terms than they \verr in the pre-Eh4S period, or than the other major currencies (the dollar, the yen and sterling) have bcen during the 1980s.…”

“…As Zis (1984) has pointed out, it is essentially against this objective that the performance of the EMS should be judged. The consensus view (Gros and 'l'hygcsen, 1988;Giavazzi et al, 1988;de Grauwe and Peeters, 1989) which has now emerged is that the EMS has indeed succeeded in large measure according to this criterion.…”

“…See alsoZis (1984) for references to other critical opinions exprqssed at the time the EMS was set up. 3SceVaubel (1979, pp.27-8)for some strong comments on this contrast.…”

British unilateralism in a multilateral Europe: Sterling in and out of the exchange rate mechanism

“…It was not clear that when popular domestic macroeconomic goals (full employment, economic growth, rising incomes, etc.) came into conflict with exchange rate commitments made explicit by the ERM fluctuation bands, economic policy authorities would choose to prioritize the latter over the former (see Kaufmann 1982;Zis 1984;Van Ypersele and Koeune 1985;Pomfret 1991;Woolley 1992). The potential for sharp conflict between ERM exchange rate commitments and other economic policy goals was realized following the election in May and June 1981 of a Socialist President and Government in France.…”

Britain and the E.M.S.: An Appraisal of the Report of the Treasury and Civil Service Committee

“…Ultimately, the degree to which the EMS has succeeded in attaining the goal of creating a 'zone of monetary stability' in Europe depends upon counterfactual analysis providing an insight into what would have happened to the relevant target variables had the EMS not existed. To the extent that some light can be shed on this by comparing the actual performance of EMS members with that of non-EMS countries for the period immediately before the EMS was set up and the period since 1979, various submissions to the Committee presented comprehensive comparative information of this nature.13 Reading these submissions in conjunction with the existing literature (Zis, 1984;Emerson, 1982;Commission of EC, 1984;Lomax, 1983;Padoa Schioppa, 1985) enables one to take a fairly informed position on this matter. The remainder of this article will discuss three issues warranting further analysis in the light of the recommendations made by the Committee.…”