The effects of the Fukushima disaster on nuclear energy debates and policies: a two-step comparative examination

Bernardi, Luca; Morales, Laura; Lühiste, Maarja; Bischof, Daniel

doi:10.1080/09644016.2017.1383007

Cited by 25 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(40 reference statements)

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“…We argue that the reason for this and, indeed, for policy shifts in many domains, stems from the coalition politics of forward-looking strategic parties. in doing so, we deviate from previous explanations that tended to focus more exclusively on public opinion, interest groups, and political movements (e.g., Bernardi et al 2018;Jahn and Korolczuk 2012;schreurs 2012). the september 2009 german federal election resulted in a narrow minimum-winning governing coalition of Chancellor angela Merkel's Christian democrats (Cdu/Csu) and the liberal Free democratic Party (FdP).…”

Section: An Illustration: the German Nuclear Phase-outcontrasting

confidence: 80%

“…We argue that the reason for this and, indeed, for policy shifts in many domains, stems from the coalition politics of forward‐looking strategic parties. In doing so, we deviate from previous explanations that tended to focus more exclusively on public opinion, interest groups, and political movements (e.g., Bernardi et al 2018; Jahn and Korolczuk 2012; Schreurs 2012).…”

Section: Why Cips Predict Policy (And Polls Do Not)contrasting

confidence: 79%

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Coalition Prospects and Policy Change: An Application to the Environment

Kayser

Rehmert²

2020

Legislative Studies Qtrly

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In most developed democracies, parties adjust their positions to polls and public opinion. Yet, in a coalition government, the policy that emerges is often the outcome of negotiations between governing parties. We argue that the credibility of exit threats by current coalition members and the importance of outside parties for the formation of potential alternative coalitions both matter for policy adoption. Building on a new data set measuring the expected coalition‐inclusion probabilities of parties in parliamentary democracies, we estimate the effect of coalition prospects on an important policy outcome—environmental policy stringency—in nine European countries between 1990 and 2012. Our findings demonstrate that only polling shifts that alter coalition probabilities affect outcomes. Changes in the coalition‐inclusion probability of green parties—regardless of whether they are in government—predict changes in the environmental policy stringency of sitting governments. Political polls, in contrast, do not.

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Section: An Illustration: the German Nuclear Phase-outcontrasting

confidence: 80%

Section: Why Cips Predict Policy (And Polls Do Not)contrasting

confidence: 79%

Coalition Prospects and Policy Change: An Application to the Environment

Kayser

Rehmert²

2020

Legislative Studies Qtrly

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“…Relatedly, other work suggests that focusing events and external shocks may trigger the mechanisms for policy change (e.g., Clemens 2007;Bernardi et al, 2018). In this regard, the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on mental wellbeing (O'Connor et al, 2020;Taquet et al, 2020) might potentially act as a trigger for mobilizing the public to demand that governments react by increasing their attention to the issue and introduce minor or major policy changes, depending on the level of responsiveness (e.g., Schumaker 1975), if any.…”

Section: To What Signals Does Mental Health Policy Respond?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Mental Health and Political Representation: A Roadmap

Bernardi

2021

Front. Polit. Sci.

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Research on health and political behavior has identified a significant mental health-participation gap that is likely to have important consequences for political equality. Yet such consequences remain by and large unexplored. Inspired by 60 years of empirical research on public opinion, media and policy, this article proposes a roadmap for research on the political representation of mental health. It advances a number of research questions around 1) opinion formation and issue emergence and evolution, 2) multiple and complementary societal signals that can influence policy makers’ issue attention and policy change, and 3) different conceptions of representation and their consequences for public attitudes and political participation. The article also provides a preliminary attempt at addressing whether mental health spending incorporates signals from public preferences for spending on mental health services or policy problems. Making use of time-series data on spending on mental health services by local authorities in England between 1994 and 2013, the analysis finds no statistical association between spending and policy problems and reveals a negative relationship between spending and public preferences, suggesting that if spending is reacting at all to preferences, it misrepresents them. This article invites scholars to collect more data and produce more research that will guide interventions to help overcome stigma and participation challenges that undermine political equality as one of the key principles of democracy.

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“…Similarly, in post-Soviet regimes, a purely technical discourse dominated the assessment and policy responses. Bernardi et al (2018) show that far from a direct cause-effect, policy changes across Europe post-Fukushima require a pattern of factors, which make the situation 'ripe for change'. On public opinion, studies focus on prominent countries such as Italy (Prati & Zani, 2012), Switzerland (Siegrist & Visschers, 2012;Siegrist et al, 2014), Japan (Kato et al, 2013), and Germany (Arlt & Wolling, 2016), used qualitative data and survey-based designs to characterise the specific national trajectories.…”

Section: Chernobyl Former Ussr Now Ukraine (26 April 1986)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Fukushima Accident and Public Perceptions About Nuclear Power Around the Globe – A Challenge & Response Model

Bauer

Gylstorff

Madsen

et al. 2018

Environmental Communication

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In this paper we examine the impact of the Fukushima accident (March 2011) on public perceptions of nuclear power on a global scale. It is widely recognized that any future of nuclear power critically depends on public acceptance to sustain massive public subsidies. We will contrast conceptually and empirically two models of the 'Fukushima effect', an event & effect (EE) model (Kim, Kim & Kim, 2013) and our own challenge & response (CR) model. Firstly, we replicate Kim et al. (2013) who modelled retrospective opinion changes after March 2011 across 42 countries on a set of 'objective' predictors including geographical distance from Fukushima. But, instead of survey data ex-post-facto, we use historical opinion data 1996-2016 for 23+ countries. On historical data, the EE model has little explanatory power for opinion shifts, beyond the dependency on nuclear power in the energy mix. Secondly, we introduce the alternative CR model. Our hypothesis is that individual and societal responses to nuclear accidents are constrained by cultural memories. Memory, both individual and collective, is primarily adaptive and makes available schematic information to deal with novel situations. Memory creates familiarity and facilitates coping with uncertainty. The CR model introduces symbolic factors such as 'Past Responses to Nuclear Incidents', 'Nuclear Renaissance', and 'Long-term Acceptance Level' to explain the Fukushima effect of 2011.

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The effects of the Fukushima disaster on nuclear energy debates and policies: a two-step comparative examination

Cited by 25 publications

References 49 publications

Coalition Prospects and Policy Change: An Application to the Environment

Coalition Prospects and Policy Change: An Application to the Environment

Mental Health and Political Representation: A Roadmap

The Fukushima Accident and Public Perceptions About Nuclear Power Around the Globe – A Challenge & Response Model

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