The Effects of Real Exchange Rates and Income on International Tourism Demand for the USA from Some European Union Countries

Ongan, Serdar; Işık, Cem; Özdemir, Dilek

doi:10.3390/economies5040051

Cited by 49 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Due to monthly data availability, we use Industrial Production Index as the proxy of GDP since it provides monthly data for the empirical studies. Recently, scholars recommended the use of this index in tourism demand models (Balli et al, 2018; Demir and Gozgor, 2018; Dogru et al, 2017; González and Paz, 1995; Ongan et al, 2017; Seo et al, 2009). Furthermore, the REER is calculated as:…”

Section: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence

2019

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The global economic outlook is more uncertain than ever before and sensitive to uncertainties related to a variety of economic policies decisions of all stakeholders and governments. These perceived uncertainties may be the culprit in shrinking the size of overall economic activity. Under increasing uncertainties, travel and vacation plans of consumers can be canceled or postponed. Therefore, policy-related economic uncertainties are expected to affect tourism demand beyond well-established economic and noneconomic factors. In this study, we explore the efficacy and the impact of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting the tourism demand on international tourist arrivals (a measure of tourism demand) to the United States from Mexico and Canada over the period of January 1996–September 2017. The findings of the study reveal that EPU is a significant predictor as increases in the EPU index lead to decreases in tourism demand to the United States. Canadian tourists seem to be more sensitive to EPUs. Increases in the EPU index cause them to reduce Canadians’ vacations to the United States proportionally more than the Mexicans. To enhance the explanatory power of current models, the uncertainty can be a theoretically significant construct thus needs to be included when calibrating demand models.

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Section: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence

2019

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“…Tourists' income, tourism prices at destinations, prices in competing destinations, and exchange rates are determinants of tourism demand in recurrent studies (Karimi et al, 2019;Song & Li, 2008). U.S. hotel demand has been shown to be correlated with personal income and corporate profits, skilled workers' unemployment, and the state of the global economy (Corgel & Woodworth, 2012;Ongan et al, 2017). When these indicators are forecasted to remain strong, the hotel industry has been shown to remain in an expansion mode.…”

Section: Determinants Of Lodging Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to GDP, in analyzing hotel demand trends both within and outside the hotel industry, macroeconomic data such as employment, personal income, industrial production, inflation, and interest rates have been studied as independent variables (Aalen et al, 2019;Berman & Pfleeger, 1997;Corgel & Woodworth, 2012;Gouveia & Rodrigues, 2005;Kling & McCue, 1987;O'Neill & Carlbäck, 2011;Ongan et al, 2017;Quigley, 2002;Wheaton, 1987;Wheaton & Rossoff, 1998). Interestingly, in a presentation at the Hotel Data Conference in Nashville, TN, Hood (2016) related lodging demand to several economic variables using correlation analysis.…”

Section: Determinants Of Lodging Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Lodging Demand Trends in the U.S. Hotel Industry

O’Neill

Ouyang

2020

Cornell Hospitality Quarterly

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Future economic trends in the U.S. hotel industry are often discussed and debated at hotel investment conferences and elsewhere, typically without discussion of the underlying economic indicators that lodging prognosticators should track to predict lodging demand growth and decline. This research endeavors to rank the predictive ability of various economic variables and determine which may be the strongest predictors of lodging demand trends. In addition, we seek to identify a relatively small group of economic variables, that is, a consideration set that may best serve lodging prognosticators with determining the future direction of lodging demand. In our analyses, we evaluate both economic indicators and quarterly change in those indicators. Furthermore, we analyze autoregressive and moving average features of lodging demand in recent years. We present models that prognosticators may use to project lodging demand trends. Although there are a variety of variables that serve to predict lodging demand trends, gross domestic private investment (GDPI) is noted as a particularly effective predictor of lodging demand trends, and it has been effective over all the recent time periods we studied. This information should be beneficial to lodging practitioners/analysts as well as academics.

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“…In most tourism studies, the first three criteria are used (see, e.g. Gokovali et al 2007;Martínez-Garcia and Raya 2008;Barros and Machado 2010;Gautam 2014;Ongan et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The interdependence between the demand for tourism and selected macroeconomic variables is one of the topics currently being addressed (see, e.g. Gautam 2014;Ongan et al 2017). The purpose of these analyses is to find both short-term as well as long-term relationships through VECM.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Tourism Demand for the South Moravian Region of the Czech Republic from Germany, Poland, Austria, and Slovakia

Jeřábek

2019

CER

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International tourism is one of the most important sectors of the open economy. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects that income as gross domestic product, tourism price as the real exchange rate, and travel cost as the price of Brent crude oil have on inbound tourism demand (tourist arrivals) from Poland, Slovakia, Germany, and Austria in the South Moravian Region of the Czech Republic over the period 2002:M1–2018:M5. The number of Polish, German, Slovak and Austrian tourists accommodated in collective accommodation establishments within the South Moravian Region as a dependent variable are considered. To achieve this aim, cointegration analysis under the VECM approach is applied. The results show that Slovak, Polish, Austrian and German tourists respond positively to their income changes. Austrian and Slovak tourists respond negatively to changes in tourism prices in the Czech Republic. Tourists from Germany and Poland do not respond to changes in the Czech price level since their elasticity coefficients are non‑significant. German, Austrian and Slovak tourists respond negatively to transportation cost changes. Polish tourists do not respond to transport cost changes since their elasticity coefficient is non‑significant.

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The Effects of Real Exchange Rates and Income on International Tourism Demand for the USA from Some European Union Countries

Cited by 49 publications

References 56 publications

Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence

Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence

Predicting Lodging Demand Trends in the U.S. Hotel Industry

The Effects of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Tourism Demand for the South Moravian Region of the Czech Republic from Germany, Poland, Austria, and Slovakia

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