The Effects of Life Circumstances on Longitudinal Trajectories of Offending*

Abstract

This study, which is based on individual criminal careers over a 60‐year period, focuses on the development of criminal behavior. It first examines the impact that life circumstances such as work and marriage have on offending, then tests whether the effects of these circumstances are different for different groups of offenders, and finally examines the extent to which the age‐crime relationship at the aggregate level can be explained by age‐graded differences in life circumstances. Official data were retrieved for a 4‐percent (N=4,615) sample of all individuals whose criminal case was tried in the Netherlands in 1977. Self‐report data were derived from a nationally representative survey administered in the Netherlands in 1996 to 2,244 individuals aged 15 years or older. In analyzing this data, we use semi‐parametric group‐based models. Results indicate that life circumstances substantially influence the chances of criminal behavior, and that the effects of these circumstances on offending differ across offender groups. Age‐graded changes in life circumstances, however, explain the aggregate age‐crime relationship only to a modest extent.

Invited Address: James Joyce, Alice in Wonderland, the Rolling Stones, and Criminal Careers

“…Several studies have examined Sampson and Laub's stability/change thesis and report results consistent with their view that both persistent individual differences (stability) and local life circumstances (change) are important for understanding offending over the life-course (Blokland and Nieuwbeerta 2005;Horney et al 1995;Laub and Sampson 2003;Paternoster et al 1997;Piquero et al 2002a). It is also important to note that studies have also shown that the type and quality of life circumstances and not just the mere presence of it, is important for aiding the desistance process (Laub et al 1998).…”

The Adolescence–Adulthood Transition and Desistance from Crime: Examining the Underlying Structure of Desistance

“…For example, according to Uggen [82], only after about age 26 did work appear to become a turning point with respect to desistance. Furthermore, longitudinal research examining long-term criminal careers show that such age-graded changes in life circumstances only have a modest impact on offending [5]. Despite this difference concerning the age stage when turning points typically have the most pervasive effect on desistance, these theoretical perspectives are not necessarily contradictory.…”

The Heterogeneity in the Development of Homotypic and Heterotypic Antisocial Behavior

“…Studies using official records have identified a group with an adult-onset offending pattern [13,48], but evidence is mixed using self-report data. Several studies using population-based samples have identified a late-onset trajectory of offenders whose antisocial behavior starts to accelerate from very low to higher levels in their late teens [7,9], but others have failed to reveal such a pattern [4,45]. There are two explanations of adult-onset criminality.…”