The effects of emergency government cash transfers on beliefs and behaviours during the COVID pandemic: Evidence from Brazil

Leon, Fernanda Leite Lopez de; Malde, Bansi; McQuillin, Ben

doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2023.01.006

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The Auxílio Emergencial socioeconomic program was crucial in promoting social isolation and mitigating the spread of the coronavirus throughout 2020 [ 37 , 38 ]. This program reached approximately 22% of the Brazilian population, paying a monthly mean of USD 154.86 from April to August 2020, continuing with reduced amounts after that period [ 37 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating time-varying epidemiological parameters and underreporting of Covid-19 cases in Brazil using a mathematical model with fuzzy transitions between epidemic periods

Lima,

Tupinambás,

Guimarães

2024

PLoS ONE

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Our study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil, spanning five waves over three years. We employed a novel Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead-Susceptible (SIRDS) model with a fuzzy transition between epidemic periods to estimate time-varying parameters and evaluate case underreporting. The initial basic reproduction number (R0) is identified at 2.44 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.42–2.46), decreasing to 1.00 (95% CI: 0.99–1.01) during the first wave. The model estimates an underreporting factor of 12.9 (95% CI: 12.5–13.2) more infections than officially reported by Brazilian health authorities, with an increasing factor of 5.8 (95% CI: 5.2–6.4), 12.9 (95% CI: 12.5–13.3), and 16.8 (95% CI: 15.8–17.5) in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively. Additionally, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is initially 0.88% (95% CI: 0.81%–0.94%) during the initial phase but consistently reduces across subsequent outbreaks, reaching its lowest value of 0.018% (95% CI: 0.011–0.033) in the last outbreak. Regarding the immunity period, the observed uncertainty and low sensitivity indicate that inferring this parameter is particularly challenging. Brazil successfully reduced R0 during the first wave, coinciding with decreased human mobility. Ineffective public health measures during the second wave resulted in the highest mortality rates within the studied period. We attribute lower mortality rates in 2022 to increased vaccination coverage and the lower lethality of the Omicron variant. We demonstrate the model generalization by its application to other countries. Comparative analyses with serological research further validate the accuracy of the model. In forecasting analysis, our model provides reasonable outbreak predictions. In conclusion, our study provides a nuanced understanding of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil, employing a novel epidemiological model. The findings contribute to the broader discourse on pandemic dynamics, underreporting, and the effectiveness of health interventions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating time-varying epidemiological parameters and underreporting of Covid-19 cases in Brazil using a mathematical model with fuzzy transitions between epidemic periods

Lima,

Tupinambás,

Guimarães

2024

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, these studies focus on existing social insurance programmes rather than COVID-19-related programmes. An exception is the study by De Leon et al (2021), which finds that emergency government cash transfers in Brazil reduced the probability of contracting COVID-19 through the increased practice of social distancing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%