Estimating time-varying epidemiological parameters and underreporting of Covid-19 cases in Brazil using a mathematical model with fuzzy transitions between epidemic periods
Hélder Seixas Lima,
Unaí Tupinambás,
Frederico Gadelha Guimarães
Abstract:Our study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil, spanning five waves over three years. We employed a novel Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead-Susceptible (SIRDS) model with a fuzzy transition between epidemic periods to estimate time-varying parameters and evaluate case underreporting. The initial basic reproduction number (R0) is identified at 2.44 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.42–2.46), decreasing to 1.00 (95% CI: 0.99–1.01) during the first wave. The model estimates an und… Show more
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