The Effects of Climate Change on Spatiotemporal Changes of Hazelnut (Corylus Avellana) Cultivation Areas in the Black Sea Region, Turkey

Abstract

Ustaoglu et al. : The effects of climate change on spatiotemporal changes of hazelnut (Corylus Avellana) Abstract. Turkey ranks the first among the hazelnut producers in the world. The purpose of this study is to question whether or not the hazelnut plant that grows under natural climate conditions will be affected by climate change. Spatial and temporal change simulations have been done in order to define the actual and the future status of hazelnut cultivation areas. The Marmara and the Black Sea regions have been chosen as study areas of hazelnut production in Turkey. The possible evolution of the current climate conditions to affect hazelnut cultivation in the upcoming 90 years and the estimated changes to occur in hazelnut areas have been asserted in the study. In order to determine the future climate conditions, the set of temperature and rainfall data of the upcoming 90 year period (2011 -2100) obtained from the A2 scenario of RegCM3 regional climate model has been used and by taking the averages of each 10 year period, it has been simulated with the MATLAB software. While an increase of up to 6 ºC in temperature for the upcoming 90 years can be expected to have negative effects on hazelnut cultivation depending on the A2 scenario (the worst), no change has been observed in the rainfall scale that may negatively affect hazelnuts. In particular, it has been observed that this temperature change may cause vertical and horizontal changes in hazelnut areas. Accordingly, it has been anticipated that hazelnut cultivation on the coast line between 0 -250 m may get affected in a negative way and the areas exceeding 1500 m that are not currently suitable for hazelnut cultivation may become arable lands due to vertical change.

Climatic Suitability of Different Areas in Abruzzo, Central Italy, for the Cultivation of Hazelnut

“…Hence, the identification of the new areas suitable for hazelnut farming should be based also on the projected trends of the impacts of thermal and precipitation regimes [6]. The effects of the temperature and rainfall are among the climatic parameters having a distinctive role in the cultivation conditions of hazelnut, as reported by several authors [3][4][5][10][11][12][13][14]. Moreover, an increase in the number of days with a maximum temperature higher than 35 • C and relative humidity lower than 70% has been reported to cause severe water and heat stresses, leading to yield decline and shortened vegetative growth, Horticulturae 2022, 8, 580 2 of 16 combined with a reduction in kernel filling [4,15,16].…”

“…Besides the type and technical and cultural factors, hazelnut growing is also related to environmental and, particularly, to climatic conditions [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Studies, however, are limited to a few locations and refer to current climatic conditions, despite the long-term nature of the investment connected to cultivation (around 10 years after planting before full production) [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Hence, the identification of the new areas suitable for hazelnut farming should be based also on the projected trends of the impacts of thermal and precipitation regimes [6].…”

Effects of temperature and precipitation on hazelnut yield in Turkey

“…There are many studies that emphasize the importance of temperature and precipitation conditions on hazelnut yield and that there have been some trends and shifts in temperature and precipitation in Turkey in recent years (Chmielewski, 1992;Çiçek and Duman, 2015;Fideghelli and Salvador, 2009;Ray et al, 2015;Türkoğlu et al 2016;Wheeler et al, 2000;Yılmaz, 2018;Zengin and Özbahçe 2014). On the other hand, according to the literature review, although there are studies in Turkey that focus on the relations between annual hazelnut yield and climate conditions, these studies are usually focused on a single province (Coşkun and Sözen, 2017; or to demonstrate the effects of possible climate change on hazelnut yield (An et al, 2020;Bütüner, 2019;Ustaoğlu and Karaca, 2014).…”

The Effects of Atmospheric Oscillations on Crop (Olive, Grape and Cotton) Yield in the Eastern Part of the Mediterranean Region, Turkey

“…Climate change causes global and regional environmental problems such as drought, land degradation and desertification, reduction and destruction of biodiversity and forests. If the carbon dioxide level is not fixed at a certain rate and countries do not develop adaptation strategies to climate change impacts, it will cause food and water problems (food and water security, availability, access, consumption and sustainability of food and water), climate migration in the future (Ustaoğlu and İkiel 2007;Stone et al 2013;Lobell D 2014;Ustaoğlu and Karaca 2014;Gazioğlu 2018Gazioğlu , Ülker et al 2018Gorji et al 2019;IPCC, 2021;Malhi et al 2021;Ortiz-Bobea et al 2021). It is thought that the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events that have occurred frequently in recent years is related to the changes in large-scale pressure and wind circulation and atmospheric oscillations (Karabörk and Kahya, 2003;Türkeş and Erlat, 2003;Hatzaki et al, 2009;Andrade et al 2011;Baltacı et al2018).…”