In the last century climate change has been a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well‐being. Atmospheric oscillations that occur at the regional oceanic flow pattern may affect significantly the climate of the Earth. In this study, we investigate the effects of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) on the Mediterranean crop yield using the Nino 3, Nino3.4, Nino 4, ONI and NAO indices. Olive, which is a bioindicator type in the Mediterranean, and cotton and grapes with high yield and economic value crops were examined. According to the average production amounts in the Mediterranean Region between 1991 and 2020, 39% of cotton production is in Adana (205319 tone), 43% of grape production is in Mersin (228471 tone) and 37% of olive production is in Hatay (103854 tone). As a method, firstly, Mann Kendall rank correlation test was applied to the yield values of the crops. After the 2000s, it has been determined that the trend of yield has changed and was obtained an increasing trend. Secondly, the correlation between the yields and Nino 3, Nino3.4, Nino 4, and NAO indices were determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient. Accordingly, a high correlation of 50% and 80% was found at the p ≤ 0.05 and p ≤ 0.00 significance level in the phenological periods of the crops. The highest correlations were determined especially during the flowering period (April, May, June) for olive and grape yield with El Nino indices. The frequency of the correlation detected with the NAO index is weak. The effect on the efficiency of the phases when El Nino indices are strong was examined graphically. Accordingly, in the 1997 and 2015-2016 periods, when the El Nino phenomen was very strong, there were sharp decreases in the crop yields. This variability affects the countries whose economic activity is based on agriculture in the Mediterranean Basin, and it is likely to affect the food industry in the future.
In the last century climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well‐being. Atmospheric oscillations that occur at the regional oceanic flow pattern may affect significantly the climate of the Earth. In this study, we investigate effects of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) on the Mediterranean crop yield using the Nino 3, Nino3.4, Nino 4, ONI and NAO indices. Olive, which is a bioindicator type in the Mediterranean, and cotton and grapes with high yield and economic value crops were examined. As a method, firstly, Mann Kendall rank correlation test was applied to the yield values of the crops. After the 2000s, it has been determined that the trend of yield has changed and was obtained an increasing trend. Secondly, the correlation between the yields and the indices were determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient. Accordingly, a high correlation of 50% and 80% was found at the p ≤ 0.05 and p ≤ 0.00 significance level in the phenological periods of the crops. The highest correlations were determined especially during flowering period with El Nino indices. The frequency of the correlation detected with the NAO indece is weak. The effect on the efficiency of the phases when El Nino indices are strong was examined graphically. Accordingly, in the 1997 and 2015-2016 periods, when the El Nino phenomen was very stong, there were sharply decreases in the crop yields. It is seriously affects the countries whose economic activity is based on agriculture in the Mediterranean Basin, and it is likely to affect food industry in the future.
In this study, the areas where wheat, corn, cotton, grape and olive plants of high economic value in the Mediterranean Region can be grown in accordance with the special climate requirements have been determined with Weighted Overlay Analysis in Geographical Information Systems. Burdur, Isparta, Kahramanmaras, Antalya, Mersin, Adana, Osmaniye and Iskenderun were selected for this purpose as the automatic meteorological observation stations having long observation period and homogeneous distribution. Including the years between 1991-2017, the daily average temperature, daily average maximum temperature, daily average minimum temperature and daily total rainfall data were used as climate data along the elevation and slope data generated from the digital elevation model (DEM) as topography data. Phenological periods of agricultural products from Turkey Phenology Atlas and special climate requirements in these periods according to literature review were determined as first step of the methodology. Then, climate data were arranged according to phenological periods and transferred to ArcGIS 10.1 program. Climate data were interpolated by IDW method in order to create a continuous surface from climate data. The weighted overlay tool included in the ArcGIS 10.1 program was applied to the topography data and interpolated climate data. The areas compatible with temperature and precipitation conditions which are special climate requirements of the agricultural products and the areas where the elevation is below 1000 meters and the slope is below %20 are classified as suitable; and the areas that do not meet these criteria are classified as unsuitable. Then the distribution maps are constructed. It is determined that the areas classified as suitable for agricultural production by the study overlap with the areas currently having the greatest amount of agriculture production. According to the results obtained from the analysis; the effect of elevation, hill and climate factors in determining the areas where agricultural products can be cultivated economically is clearly determined.Extended English summary is in the end of Full Text PDF (TURKISH) file. ÖzetBu çalışmada Akdeniz Bölgesi'nde ekonomik değeri yüksek olan buğday, mısır, pamuk, üzüm ve zeytinin özel iklim isteklerine uygun olarak yetiştirilebileceği alanlar Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri’nde Ağırlıklı Çakıştırma Analizi (Weighted Overlay Analysis) ile tespit edilmiştir. Bu amaçla çalışma alanındaki gözlem süresi uzun olan ve homojen dağılım gösteren otomatik meteoroloji gözlem istasyonlarından Burdur, Isparta, Kahramanmaraş, Antalya, Mersin, Adana, Osmaniye ve İskenderun seçilmiştir. Bu istasyonlara ait 1991-2017 yılları arasını kapsayan, günlük ortalama sıcaklık, günlük ortalama maksimum sıcaklık, günlük ortalama minimum sıcaklık, günlük en yüksek maksimum ve en düşük minimum sıcaklık ve günlük toplam yağış verileri ile sayısal yükseklik modelinden (dem) oluşturulan yükselti ve eğim verileri, topoğrafya verisi olarak kullanılmıştır. Metot olarak, öncelikle tarım ürünlerinin Türkiye Fenoloji Atlası’ndan fenolojik dönemleri ve literatürden bu dönemlerdeki özel iklim istekleri belirlenmiştir. Fenolojik dönemlere göre düzenlenen iklim verileri ArcGIS 10.1 programına aktarılmıştır. İklim verilerinden sürekli yüzey oluşturabilmesi için sıcaklık ve yağış değerleri IDW yöntemiyle interpole edilmiştir. Topoğrafya verileri ve interpole edilmiş iklim verilerine ArcGIS 10.1 programında weighted overlay aracıyla ağırlıklı çakıştırma analizi uygulanmıştır. Tarım ürünlerinin özel iklim isteklerinden sıcaklık ve yağış koşullarına uyumlu, yükseltinin 1000 metre ve eğimin %20’nin altında olduğu alanlar uygun, bu kriterleri sağlamayan alanlar uygun değil olarak sınıflandırılmış ve dağılış haritaları yapılmıştır. Tarımsal üretim için uygun olan alanların tarımsal üretim tutarlarının da yüksek olduğu alanlara karşılık geldiği gözlemlenmiştir. Analizden elde edilen sonuçlara göre; bölgedeki yükselti ve eğim faktörleri ile iklim koşullarının tarım ürünlerinin ekonomik olarak yetiştirilebileceği alanları belirlemedeki etkisi açık bir şekilde tespit edilmiştir.
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