The Effect of Social Mixing Controls on the Spread of Smallpox—A Two-Level Model

Kress, Moshe

doi:10.1007/s10729-005-4138-4

Cited by 14 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Our simulation also shows that at its peak, three out of every seven people would be infected. Focusing on the infection risks of different places, we determined that the number of people infected during their daily routines (at work or school) is twice the number of those infected at home [45]. This value is 1.4 because we assumed that people stay at home instead of going outside.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A human behavior integrated hierarchical model of airborne disease transmission in a large city

Zhang

Huang

Su³

et al. 2018

Building and Environment

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A B S T R A C TEpidemics of infectious diseases such as SARS, H1N1, and MERS threaten public health, particularly in large cities such as Hong Kong. We constructed a human behavior integrated hierarchical (HiHi) model based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered) model, the Wells-Riley equation, and population movement considering both spatial and temporal dimensions. The model considers more than 7 million people, 3 million indoor environments, and 2566 public transport routes in Hong Kong. Smallpox, which could be spread through airborne routes, is studied as an example. The simulation is based on people's daily commutes and indoor human behaviors, which were summarized by mathematical patterns. We found that 59.6%, 18.1%, and 13.4% of patients become infected in their homes, offices, and schools, respectively. If both work stoppage and school closure measures are taken when the number of infected people is greater than 1000, an infectious disease will be effectively controlled after 2 months. The peak number of infected people will be reduced by 25% compared to taking no action, and the time of peak infections will be delayed by about 40 days if 90% of the infected people go to hospital during the infectious period. When ventilation rates in indoor environments increase to five times their default settings, smallpox will be naturally controlled. Residents of Kowloon and the north part of Hong Kong Island have a high risk of infection from airborne infectious diseases. Our HiHi model reduces the calculation time for infection rates to an acceptable level while preserving accuracy.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A human behavior integrated hierarchical model of airborne disease transmission in a large city

Zhang

Huang

Su³

et al. 2018

Building and Environment

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“…The SEIR framework, which models the flows of people between four states, namely, susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I), and recovered (R), has been widely used to study the transmission of disease [ 19 , 20 ]. However, the original model does not explicitly consider the impact of IPC measures taken by the government, such as quarantining the contacts of people with newly confirmed cases and isolating patients with confirmed cases in hospitals for medical treatment.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the effectiveness of re-opening policies before vaccination during a pandemic: SD modelling research based on COVID-19 in Wuhan

et al. 2021

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Background Lockdown policies were widely adopted during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to control the spread of the virus before vaccines became available. These policies had significant economic impacts and caused social disruptions. Early re-opening is preferable, but it introduces the risk of a resurgence of the epidemic. Although the World Health Organization has outlined criteria for re-opening, decisions on re-opening are mainly based on epidemiologic criteria. To date, the effectiveness of re-opening policies remains unclear. Methods A system dynamics COVID-19 model, SEIHR(Q), was constructed by integrating infection prevention and control measures implemented in Wuhan into the classic SEIR epidemiological model and was validated with real-world data. The input data were obtained from official websites and the published literature. Results The simulation results showed that track-and-trace measures had significant effects on the level of risk associated with re-opening. In the case of Wuhan, where comprehensive contact tracing was implemented, there would have been almost no risk associated with re-opening. With partial contact tracing, re-opening would have led to a minor second wave of the epidemic. However, if only limited contact tracing had been implemented, a more severe second outbreak of the epidemic would have occurred, overwhelming the available medical resources. If the ability to implement a track-trace-quarantine policy is fixed, the epidemiological criteria need to be further taken into account. The model simulation revealed different levels of risk associated with re-opening under different levels of track-and-trace ability and various epidemiological criteria. A matrix was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of the re-opening policies. Conclusions The SEIHR(Q) model designed in this study can quantify the impact of various re-opening policies on the spread of COVID-19. Integrating epidemiologic criteria, the contact tracing policy, and medical resources, the model simulation predicts whether the re-opening policy is likely to lead to a further outbreak of the epidemic and provides evidence-based support for decisions regarding safe re-opening during an ongoing epidemic. Keyords COVID-19; Risk of re-opening; Effectiveness of re-opening policies; IPC measures; SD modelling.

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“…For an overview of epidemic models, see [6]. In particular, nonhomogeneous mixing models, as presented in Section 5, are addressed in [8,13,18]. A more recent approach to epidemics may be found in [15].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lanchester for cyber: The mixed epidemic-combat model

Schramm

Gaver

2013

Naval Research Logistics

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Abstract:Future conflict between armed forces will occur both in the physical domain as well as the information domain. The linkage of these domains is not yet fully understood. We study the dynamics of a force subject to kinetic effects as well as a specific network effect-spreading malware. In the course of our study, we unify two well-studied models: the Lanchester model of armed conflict and deterministic models of epidemiology. We develop basic results, including a rule for determining when explicit modeling of network propagation is required. We then generalize the model to a force subdivided by both physical and network topology, and demonstrate the specific case where the force is divided between front-and rear-echelons.

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The Effect of Social Mixing Controls on the Spread of Smallpox—A Two-Level Model

Cited by 14 publications

References 21 publications

A human behavior integrated hierarchical model of airborne disease transmission in a large city

A human behavior integrated hierarchical model of airborne disease transmission in a large city

Investigating the effectiveness of re-opening policies before vaccination during a pandemic: SD modelling research based on COVID-19 in Wuhan

Lanchester for cyber: The mixed epidemic-combat model

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