The Effect of Population Growth on Economic Growth: A Meta‐Regression Analysis of the Macroeconomic Literature

Abstract

Many studies have sought to gauge the impact of population growth on economic growth. A well-known stylized fact of this literature is that the estimated effects of population growth measures on economic growth are not robust, varying between being positive, negative, and insignificantly different from zero. The present study analyzes 471 statistical regressions from 29 prominent economic growth studies using meta-regression analysis to identify the effect of alternative methodologies on key population growth results. This study finds that a broad set of methodological factors explains more than half of the variation in the population growth effects observed from this literature, including the types of variables used to measure population growth, the countries selected, the time frame of the analysis, and the nature of the control variables specified. The study also yields results that have implications for policymakers, especially insofar as several policy factors seem to influence the population change-economic growth nexus. Particularly strong is the evidence in support of the increasingly adverse effects of population growth in the post-1980 period, suggesting that demographic issues should warrant greater attention than they currently receive from the policymaking community. Copyright (c) 2009 The Population Council, Inc..

Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature

“…Others however have found a negative and significant relationship between population, population growth, and the fertility rate (Most and Vann de Berg 1996;Hamilton and Monteagudo 1998;Barro 1999Barro , 2003Checherita-Westphal and Rother 2012;Anyanwu 2014). The results have also been confirmed in a meta-analysis between population growth and economic growth, where the effect depends on the variables included in the model (resource dilution and interaction effects) and econometric methodology adopted (Headley and Hodge 2009).…”

Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Country Population

“…It showed that the birth rates were significantly and negatively correlated with per capita GNP (Ehrlich & Liu, 1997). Using a statistical technique called meta-regression analysis, Headey and Hodge, (2009) provided the most recent test of the classical theory. The analysis was based on 42 studies with 471 estimates of population growth.…”

Identification of Population Growth and Distribution, Based on Urban Zone Functions

“…This will complement population growth studies in other areas such as those of Ray and Ray [23], which is related to the environment; Ukpolo [24] and Headey and Hodge [25], related to socioeconomics; or Sheykhi MT [26], relating to crime, and others. The advantage of this research is the understanding that the function of an urban zone influences the acceleration of population growth and population distribution.…”