The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model

Wehner, Michael; Smith, Richard L.; Bala, Govindasamy; Duffy, P.

doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0656-y

Cited by 169 publications

(144 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Wehner et al, 2010;Kopparla et al, 2013;Prein et al, 2013;Tripathi and Dominguez, 2013). However, several of these studies compare the results on the native grid of each model with observations at resolutions that are often higher than in any of the model configurations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Connecting spatial and temporal scales of tropical precipitation in observations and the MetUM-GA6

2017

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Abstract. This study analyses tropical rainfall variability (on a range of temporal and spatial scales) in a set of parallel Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulations at a range of horizontal resolutions, which are compared with two satellitederived rainfall datasets. We focus on the shorter scales, i.e. from the native grid and time step of the model through subdaily to seasonal, since previous studies have paid relatively little attention to sub-daily rainfall variability and how this feeds through to longer scales. We find that the behaviour of the deep convection parametrization in this model on the native grid and time step is largely independent of the grid-box size and time step length over which it operates. There is also little difference in the rainfall variability on larger/longer spatial/temporal scales. Tropical convection in the model on the native grid/time step is spatially and temporally intermittent, producing very large rainfall amounts interspersed with grid boxes/time steps of little or no rain. In contrast, switching off the deep convection parametrization, albeit at an unrealistic resolution for resolving tropical convection, results in very persistent (for limited periods), but very sporadic, rainfall. In both cases, spatial and temporal averaging smoothes out this intermittency. On the ∼ 100 km scale, for oceanic regions, the spectra of 3-hourly and daily mean rainfall in the configurations with parametrized convection agree fairly well with those from satellite-derived rainfall estimates, while at ∼ 10-day timescales the averages are overestimated, indicating a lack of intra-seasonal variability. Over tropical land the results are more varied, but the model often underestimates the daily mean rainfall (partly as a result of a poor diurnal cycle) but still lacks variability on intra-seasonal timescales. Ultimately, such work will shed light on how uncertainties in modelling small-/short-scale processes relate to uncertainty in climate change projections of rainfall distribution and variability, with a view to reducing such uncertainty through improved modelling of small-/short-scale processes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Connecting spatial and temporal scales of tropical precipitation in observations and the MetUM-GA6

2017

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“…The output from the highest resolution version of a global atmospheric model used in the earlier study by Wehner et al (2010), the Community Atmospheric Model (fvCAM2.2) is also analyzed in some figures below. This data spans a slightly different period, 1979-1996, but provides a useful comparison in this study to a high-resolution global model.…”

Section: The Narccap Regional Models and Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This return period length is chosen both to be comparable to previous studies (i.e. Kharin et al 2007;Wehner et al 2010) and also to mitigate uncertainty in the fit of the extreme value distributions. This latter point is discussed in some detail in Sect.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: model performance and projections

2012

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Seasonal extreme daily precipitation is analyzed in the ensemble of NARCAPP regional climate models. Significant variation in these models' abilities to reproduce observed precipitation extremes over the contiguous United States is found. Model performance metrics are introduced to characterize overall biases, seasonality, spatial extent and the shape of the precipitation distribution. Comparison of the models to gridded observations that include an elevation correction is found to be better than to gridded observations without this correction. A complicated model weighting scheme based on model performance in simulating observations is found to cause significant improvements in ensemble mean skill only if some of the models are poorly performing outliers. The effect of lateral boundary conditions are explored by comparing the integrations driven by reanalysis to those driven by global climate models. Projected mid-century future changes in seasonal precipitation means and extremes are presented and discussions of the sources of uncertainty and the mechanisms causing these changes are presented.

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“…However, to date, studies have only demonstrated the effects of high-resolution on rainfall through single climate model, but not various models. Kopparla et al 2013;Schiemann et al 2014;Volosciuk et al 2015;Wehner et al 2010;Yang et al 2014). Furthermore, these studies have mainly considered extreme rainfall over a global or continental (e.g., the USA) scale, but few have focused on the Asian monsoon region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

et al. 2018

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In this study, a comparison in the precipitation extremes as exhibited by the seven reference datasets is made to ascertain whether the inferences based on these datasets agree or they differ. These seven datasets, roughly grouped in three categories i.e. rain-gauge based (APHRODITE, CPC-UNI), satellite-based (TRMM, GPCP1DD) and reanalysis based (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA55), having a common data period 1998-2007 are considered. Focus is to examine precipitation extremes in the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Measures of extreme precipitation include the percentile thresholds, frequency of extreme precipitation events and other quantities. Results reveal that the differences in displaying extremes among the datasets are small over South Asia and East Asia but large differences among the datasets are displayed over the Southeast Asian region including the maritime continent. Furthermore, precipitation data appear to be more consistent over East Asia among the seven datasets. Decadal trends in extreme precipitation are consistent with known results over South and East Asia. No trends in extreme precipitation events are exhibited over Southeast Asia. Outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation data are categorized as high, medium and lowresolution models. The regions displaying maximum intensity of extreme precipitation appear to be dependent on model resolution. High-resolution models simulate maximum intensity of extreme precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, medium-resolution models over northeast India and South China and the low-resolution models over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. In summary, there are differences in displaying extreme precipitation statistics among the seven datasets considered here and among the 29 CMIP5 model data outputs.

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The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model

Cited by 169 publications

References 17 publications

Connecting spatial and temporal scales of tropical precipitation in observations and the MetUM-GA6

Connecting spatial and temporal scales of tropical precipitation in observations and the MetUM-GA6

Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: model performance and projections

Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

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