The Effect of Climate Factors for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Banjarmasin City, South Kalimantan Province, Indonesia, 2012-2016

Abstract

Background: One of the factors that lead to high incidence of DHF is climate change.Objective: To analyze the effect of climate factors (temperature, humidity, wind speed, and rainfall) associated with DHF incidence in Banjarmasin City, 2012-2016. Methods: We used the national data on annual reported incidence from Health Office of Banjarmasin City and climate variations from Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Agency 2nd Class Climatology Station Syamsudin Noor Banjarmasin, January 2012-December 2016. The analysis techniques using path analysis to explained the mechanism of causal relationships between variables.Results: The result showed the overall incidence of DHF in Banjarmasin City during 2012- 2016 was 243 cases, of DHF cases were fluctuates by the monthly trend, where the highest number of DHF cases in January to March, climate variation which occurred in Banjarmasin City period 2012-2016 included temperatures ranged from 25.8-28.7°C, humidity ranged from 65-88%, wind speed ranged from 4-6 knots and rainfall ranged from 0.0-546.7 mm, and the path analysis showed that rainfall variable (X4) was the only variable which positively effected to DHF incidence variable (Y) equal to 0.613 unit (Y = 0.613 X4) (p value = 0.002).Conclusion: Climate information can used as a precautionary signal through early warming of the readiness in facing the outbreaks of vector borne diseases so that further efforts in environmental management by manipulation method and environmental modification.

Climate Change and Dengue in Indonesia: A Systematic Review

“…Some methods were used to determine the relationship between the climate variable and dengue incidence. Three of them employed a descriptive study through ecologic approach (9),(13), (18). Correlation and multiple regressions (Poisson), path analysis which is an extension from linear regression also used as an approach 18.…”

“…The high disparity of minimum and maximum temperature impacts on the low of dengue incidence (11). The impact of rainfall to dengue incidence was recognised in most of the analysed research (13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20)(21). Research in Jakarta by using 9 years of data set (2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016) shows dengue incidence was significantly associated with rainfall about 254-667mm then followed by high dengue incidence in 0-3 month in the beginning of the year (13).…”

“…In that place, dengue incidence was high in January 2015 in 89% of humidity (9). When humidity is lower than 60% it will shorten the mosquito age; consequently, mosquito cannot continue its reproduction cycle (18).…”

“…Wind speed influences the mosquitos flight range; accordingly, the decrease in wind speed is followed by the dengue incidence (9). However, research in Limboto Sub-district and Banjarmasin City reported that there was no relationship between wind speed and dengue incidence (12), (18).…”

Epidemiology Forecasting Analysis of Dengue Haemorraghic Fever With Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average in Tropical Area

“…Health problems that often occur in tropical countries are infectious diseases that are closely related to environmental conditions (Gubler, 2002;Tosepu, 2017). One infectious disease that often causes outbreaks was Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (Ishak & Kasman, 2018;Rahman et al, 2002). This disease often causes problems especially in endemic areas and even outbreaks that occur with death from sufferers.…”