The Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of the European Phlebotomus Species

Abstract

Abstract. Our study intended to explore the potential distributionshif of Phlebotomusariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. We used climate envelope modeling (CEM) method to determine the ecological requirements of the species and to model the potential distribution for three periods (1961-1990, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). We found that by the end of the 2060's the Southern UK, Germany, entire France and also the western part of Poland can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasishowe the greatest potential northward expansion, from 49°N to 59°N. For all of the studied sand fly species the entire Mediterranean Basin, the Balkan Peninsula, the Carpathian Basin, and northern coastline of the Black Sea are potentially suitable. The length of the predicted active period of the vectors will increase with one or two months.

Modeling the climatic suitability of leishmaniasis vector species in Europe

“…This kind of approach has to our knowledge never been used before for sandfly species. Nevertheless, our results are largely in agreement with other studies using different approaches 41 , 42 .…”

“…papatasi and P . tobbi , are projected to expand their potential area, leading to a projected higher diversity of vector species in Central Europe (especially the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic) in the future, which generally corroborates findings of similar ecological niche models 41 , 42 . Slight differences can be explained by the fact that we used the latest data on future climatic conditions.…”

“…Although there have been several studies on the distribution of phlebotomine species 28 , 37 , 41 , 42 , to our knowledge, an extensive modeling approach including several sandfly vector species and the latest RCP scenarios is still missing. We applied an ensemble forecasting approach 43 , which is considered to return a more robust estimation of the habitat suitability compared to single algorithms, which have primarily been used in previous studies.…”

The first record of subtropical insects (Thysanoptera) in central Europe: long‐distance transport of airborne thrips, applying three‐dimensional backward trajectories

“…For example, the warming climate is favourable for the spread of bio‐aerosols, such as spores (Werner, ) and pollen (Makra et al ., ) in Europe by long‐distance transport. Moreover, dangerous human and animal pathogenic insects (vectors) may also occur in Hungary as a result of climate change (Trájer et al ., , ). The warming climate, with milder winters and increasingly warmer summers, provides more favourable circumstances for the Thysanoptera species to be transported passively over long distances in Hungary and the neighbouring countries as well (Stange & Ayres, ; Bebber et al ., ; Björkman & Niemelä, ).…”

Exploration of the main types of biome-scale culicid entomofauna (Diptera: Culicidae) in Europe and its relationship to the occurrence of mosquito-borne arboviruses

“…The January and July temperature and precipitation values played a key role in the determination of the distribution of vector sandflies. However, the January temperatures have a more important impact on the observed ranges in general (Trájer et al 2013). Similar phenomena have been observed in the case of invasive mosquito species.…”