The Effect of Climate Change on Wetlands and Waterfowl in Western Canada: Incorporating Cropping Decisions Into a Bioeconomic Model

Withey, Patrick; Kooten, G. Cornelis van

doi:10.1111/j.1939-7445.2012.00139.x

“…, Forcey et al. , Anteau , Withey and Van Kooten ), and the productivity of upland nesting waterfowl is often lower in landscapes dominated by row crops (Reynolds et al. , Stephens et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Sofaer

¹

,

Skagen

²

,

Barsugli

³

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

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“…This is already having profound effects, notably the thawing of arctic tundra. Withey & Van Kooten (2011) predict a reduction in the "effective" wetland extent 47-56% in the Canadian prairie pothole region by 2100. In more temperate regions, higher temperatures will warm wetlands, where water can often be stagnant or slow flowing.…”

Section: Climate Change and Wetlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“Keeping the wet in wetlands”: A case study of wetland response to projected changes in climate at Mathews Lagoon, Boggy Pond and Wairio Wetlands

Warren¹

0

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<p>Wetlands are some of the most biodiverse ecosystems on the planet. They are critical for global, regional and local ecosystems, and provide considerable social and economic value for human populations (Findlayson, et. al., 2011). Wetlands have been extensively destroyed in many developed countries, establishing a growing concern and greater awareness of the importance of wetlands in the global hydrological cycle - for climate regulation, and for ecological migration (Pfadenhauer & Grootjans, 1999). Changes in climate, driven by increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses are predicted to cause significant changes to the spatial and temporal distributions in rainfall. Since water is the dominant forcing component in the structural development of wetland systems, they are particularly susceptible to changes in climate. While considerable work is now being conducted globally to better understand how wetlands will respond to changes in climate, little work has been conducted in New Zealand to identify the vulnerability of New Zealand wetland systems. Recent projection by NIWA (2016a) on regional changes in climate have been used to assess how three wetland systems (Wairio Stage 1, Boggy Pond, and Mathews Lagoon), located in the Lower Wairarapa Valley may respond to changes in climate. This study identifies relationships between ground and surface water, examines the interactions and connections between the three wetlands, and explores the sensitivity of the wetlands to climate-induced changes in evapotranspiration, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and rainfall. Wairio stage 1 has been identified as the most susceptible wetland of the three due to a lack of recharge source, while Boggy Pond is the least susceptible due to its interaction/connection with the local groundwater system.</p>

show abstract

“…This is already having profound effects, notably the thawing of arctic tundra. Withey & Van Kooten (2011) predict a reduction in the "effective" wetland extent 47-56% in the Canadian prairie pothole region by 2100. In more temperate regions, higher temperatures will warm wetlands, where water can often be stagnant or slow flowing.…”

Section: Climate Change and Wetlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“Keeping the wet in wetlands”: A case study of wetland response to projected changes in climate at Mathews Lagoon, Boggy Pond and Wairio Wetlands

Warren¹

1

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

<p>Wetlands are some of the most biodiverse ecosystems on the planet. They are critical for global, regional and local ecosystems, and provide considerable social and economic value for human populations (Findlayson, et. al., 2011). Wetlands have been extensively destroyed in many developed countries, establishing a growing concern and greater awareness of the importance of wetlands in the global hydrological cycle - for climate regulation, and for ecological migration (Pfadenhauer & Grootjans, 1999). Changes in climate, driven by increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses are predicted to cause significant changes to the spatial and temporal distributions in rainfall. Since water is the dominant forcing component in the structural development of wetland systems, they are particularly susceptible to changes in climate. While considerable work is now being conducted globally to better understand how wetlands will respond to changes in climate, little work has been conducted in New Zealand to identify the vulnerability of New Zealand wetland systems. Recent projection by NIWA (2016a) on regional changes in climate have been used to assess how three wetland systems (Wairio Stage 1, Boggy Pond, and Mathews Lagoon), located in the Lower Wairarapa Valley may respond to changes in climate. This study identifies relationships between ground and surface water, examines the interactions and connections between the three wetlands, and explores the sensitivity of the wetlands to climate-induced changes in evapotranspiration, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and rainfall. Wairio stage 1 has been identified as the most susceptible wetland of the three due to a lack of recharge source, while Boggy Pond is the least susceptible due to its interaction/connection with the local groundwater system.</p>

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The Effect of Climate Change on Wetlands and Waterfowl in Western Canada: Incorporating Cropping Decisions Into a Bioeconomic Model

Cited by 9 publications

References 14 publications

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

“Keeping the wet in wetlands”: A case study of wetland response to projected changes in climate at Mathews Lagoon, Boggy Pond and Wairio Wetlands

“Keeping the wet in wetlands”: A case study of wetland response to projected changes in climate at Mathews Lagoon, Boggy Pond and Wairio Wetlands

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