The effect of a warm mid‐latitude sea surface temperature anomaly on a numerical simulation of the general circulation of the southern hemisphere

SIMPSON, RW; Downey, William K.

doi:10.1002/qj.49710143010

Cited by 25 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…In the present study, only local Australian region SST has been considered. However, the possibility of the importance of a distant SST teleconnection as suggested by some numerical experiments [e.g., Rowntree, 1972;Simpson and Downey, 1975;Nicholls, 1979] may be examined rather than the simpler implied concept of the variation of heat and moisture available from the seas immediately surrounding the continent. In particular, periods which ex-hibit widespread contrasting climatic anomalies over the southern hemisphere (e.g., 1972-1973) are of great interest.…”

Section: Indices Of Sst the Artificial Nature Of The Selected Areas Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern hemisphere sea surface temperature variability and apparent associations with Australian rainfall

Streten¹

1981

J. Geophys. Res.

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A brief review is given of the spatial and temporal pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) observations for the southern hemisphere. An analysis is made of 20 years (1950)(1951)(1952)(1953)(1954)(1955)(1956)(1957)(1958)(1959)(1960)(1961)(1962)(1963)(1964)(1965)(1966)(1967)(1968)(1969) of observations of mean monthly SST for each degree square along the shipping routes, and relative variability is assessed on seasonal, latitudinal, and geographical bases. Highest variability occurs in oceanic regions of the western boundary currents, of current confluence, of upwelling, and also of convergence of low-level atmospheric flow, notably in the central South Pacific. Within the data limitations the relative areas of above-and below-normal SST are measured for selected tropical ocean regions near Australia for 6 years of extremely high and low extent of annual continental rainfall and for transitions from very dry years to very wet years and vice versa. The 3 extremely dry years are found to occur with an average reduction of some 14% in the area of above-normal SST as compared with the 3 extremely wet years; the corresponding regional seasonal mean atmospheric pressure is above normal in dry years and below normal in wet years. The greatest interannual changes in rainfall extent are also accompanied by corresponding transitions in the area of above-normal SST. Evidence suggests that the extent of above-normal SST over the whole ocean (including higher latitudes) surrounding continental Australia may be closely associated with extreme rainfall years. (2) the opening of the Suez Canal (1869) and the Panama Canal (1914), and (3) the increasing cross-Pacific traffic between Australasia and North American •west coast ports and withJapanese and southeast Asian ports. Thus a new trade route network became established early in the twentieth century-one, however, which has since been changed to some extent from time to time, often for political and economic reasons or because of ship or cargo characteristics; for example, the closure of the Suez Canal in the 1960's caused a total rerouting of Indian Ocean traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, and the present operation of giant tankers still occurs around South Africa rather than via Suez. As an example, Figure 1, derived

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Section: Indices Of Sst the Artificial Nature Of The Selected Areas Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern hemisphere sea surface temperature variability and apparent associations with Australian rainfall

Streten¹

1981

J. Geophys. Res.

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“…Model response to extratropical SST anomalies has been examined by Houghton et at. [1974], Spar [1973], Simpson and Downey [1975], Huang [1975], Kutzbach et al [1977], and Chervin et at. [1976].…”

Section: E Feedback and Surface Influencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐range weather forecasting: Value, status, and prospects

Nicholls¹

1980

Reviews of Geophysics

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Progress in long‐range (1 month to 10 years) weather prediction over the past decade has been reviewed. A considerable body of research on long‐range forecasting has been carried out and published during this period. Many of these studies have produced encouraging results suggesting that some meteorological parameters can be predicted on a seasonal or monthly time scale, at least for certain regions and at certain times of the year. However, operational long‐range forecasts show, at best, only marginal skill and have not improved in recent years. It is suggested that this inability to transfer the level of skill obtained in some research studies into operational practice may be due to a requirement for national weather services to make predictions for all regions under their responsibility and for all times of the year (rather than restricting their forecasts to situations in which there appears to be a reasonable expectation that the forecast will be correct). A second factor that may cause operational forecast skill to be lower than that apparently feasible may be the use of inappropriate statistical techniques in the development of forecast rules.

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“…The latter was successful in forcing blocking-like patterns formed by amplified ultralong waves in a simple barotropic model (Metz, 1986). Numerical tests of the hypothesis that SST-anomalies can force ultralong waves to larger than normal energy levels, gave positive results (Simpson and Downey, 1975;Chen and Shukla, 1983). However, in these simulations the 2 days-averages if not Fig.…”

Section: Energy Diagrams Of Baroclinic Outbreaksmentioning

confidence: 94%

Baroclinic outbreak episodes in wavenumber domain

Schilling¹

1988

Tellus A

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In contrast to the common definition of anomalous atmospheric flow by persistent and localized geopotential height anomalies, we define significant excursions from normal conditions by persistent anomalies of a single spectral energy conversion on a circumpolar scale. Whereas amplification of transient geopotential height or streamfunction anomalies generally involves a variety of possible processes and complex energetics, our approach defines strongly distorted energetics of a certain kind. With data covering 10 years (1967)(1968)(1969)(1970)(1971)(1972)(1973)(1974)(1975)(1976), we study baroclinic energy conversions from zonal mean to zonal wavenumber m available potential energy, C (A,A,), when these exceed the long-term average by more than a standard deviation for at least 3 consecutive days. During these episodes, called baroclinic outbreaks (BO), C(A,K,,,) and the kinetic energy of wave m, K,,,, are also large in all probability. Although short BO cases are frequent for all m, there is a secondary maximum of frequency at about 7 days for the ultralong wave m = 2. Composite energetics of BO's are presented, and a profound transformation of the 500 mb flow is shown for a long lasting m = 2 BO event.

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The effect of a warm mid‐latitude sea surface temperature anomaly on a numerical simulation of the general circulation of the southern hemisphere

Cited by 25 publications

References 21 publications

Southern hemisphere sea surface temperature variability and apparent associations with Australian rainfall

Southern hemisphere sea surface temperature variability and apparent associations with Australian rainfall

Long‐range weather forecasting: Value, status, and prospects

Baroclinic outbreak episodes in wavenumber domain

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