The effect of a nighttime curfew on the spread of COVID-19

Apel, Johannes; Rohde, Niklas; Marcus, Jan

doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2023.104712

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(36 reference statements)

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“…Our study’s estimates for the effectiveness of the first lockdown in France align with those found by Flaxman et al (81% (75–87) reduction in R t ), 5 who conducted pooled analyses of European countries, and Salje et al (77% (76-78) reduction in R t ), 20 who studied the effectiveness of the French lockdown during the first wave. Similar to our results, curfews were estimated to effectively reduce mobility in Quebec, Canada, 21 and reduced viral transmission in French Guiana 22 However, conflicting results were found in Germany, 23 which suggests that curfews highly depend on the context in which they are implemented and on the stringency of implementation or the methods used to assess the effect.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…Similar to our results, curfews were estimated to effectively reduce mobility in Quebec, Canada, 32 and reduced viral transmission in French Guiana. 33 However, conflicting results were found in Germany, 34 which suggests that curfews highly depend on the context in which they are implemented and on the stringency of implementation or the methods used to assess the effect.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Estimating the population effectiveness of interventions against COVID-19 in France: a modelling study

Ganser,

Buckeridge,

Heffernan

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines have been widely used to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, uncertainty persists regarding the effectiveness of these interventions due to data quality issues, methodological challenges, and differing contextual factors. Accurate estimation of their effects is crucial for future epidemic preparedness. Methods To address this, we developed a population-based mechanistic model that includes the impact of NPIs and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and hospitalization rates. Our statistical approach estimated all parameters in one step, accurately propagating uncertainty. We fitted the model to comprehensive epidemiological data in France from March 2020 to October 2021. With the same model, we simulated scenarios of vaccine rollout. Results The first lockdown was the most effective, reducing transmission by 84% (95% confidence interval (CI) 83-85). Subsequent lockdowns had diminished effectiveness (reduction of 74% (69-77) and 11% (9-18), respectively). A 6pm curfew was more effective than one at 8 pm (68% (66-69) vs. 48% (45-49) reduction), while school closures reduced transmission by 15% (12-18). In a scenario without vaccines before November 2021, we predicted 159,000 or 194% (95% prediction interval (PI) 74-424) more deaths and 1,488,000 or 340% (136-689) more hospitalizations. If a vaccine had been available after 100 days, over 71,000 deaths (16,507-204,249) and 384,000 (88,579-1,020,386) hospitalizations could have been averted. Conclusion Our results highlight the substantial impact of NPIs, including lockdowns and curfews, in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. We also demonstrate the value of the 100 days objective of the CEPI initiative for vaccine availability.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the population effectiveness of interventions against COVID-19 in France: a modelling study

Ganser,

Buckeridge,

Heffernan

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Lockdowns and curfews led to a noticeable increase in electricity consumption, especially in the afternoon and evening, accompanied by a shift in nighttime consumption 33 , 49 , 50 . These changes, as seen in our dataset, were particularly pronounced during the strict lockdown periods and continued with subsequent curfews until 2021, reflecting the adaptation of the population to new routines and restrictions 51 , 52 .…”

Section: Technical Validationmentioning

confidence: 58%

An electricity smart meter dataset of Spanish households: insights into consumption patterns

Quesada,

Astigarraga,

Merveille

et al. 2024

Sci Data

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Smart meters are devices that provide detailed information about the energy consumed by specific electricity supply points, such as homes, offices, and businesses. Data from smart meters are useful for modeling energy systems, predicting electricity consumption, and understanding human behavior. We present the first smart meter dataset from Spanish electricity supply points, expanding the geographic diversity of available data on energy consumption at the household level and reducing biases in existing data, which typically come from a limited number of countries. The dataset consists of 25,559 raw hourly time series with an average length of nearly three years, spanning from November 2014 to June 2022. It also includes three subsets obtained by segmenting and cleaning the raw time series data, each focusing on the periods before, during, and after the COVID-19 lockdowns in Spain. This dataset is a valuable resource for studying electricity consumption patterns and behaviors that emerge in response to different natural experiments, such as nationwide and regional lockdowns, nighttime curfews, and changes in electricity pricing.

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“…We observed marginal effects for cancellation of events beyond 100 people and curfew in our results, which should be interpreted with caution. Previously, in a study on the effectiveness of a nighttime curfew in Hamburg, Germany, the researchers concluded that the curfew was substantially reducing the number of Covid-19 cases 34 . Several other studies found that nighttime curfews reduce mobility, hence they result in fewer Covid-19 infections 35 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach to study the association between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the spread of Covid-19 in Germany

Khazaei,

Küchenhoff,

Hoffmann

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) are community mitigation strategies, aimed at reducing the spread of illnesses like the coronavirus pandemic, without relying on pharmaceutical drug treatments. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of different NPIs across sixteen states of Germany, for a time period of 21 months of the pandemic. We used a Bayesian hierarchical approach that combines different sub-models and merges information from complementary sources, to estimate the true and unknown number of infections. In this framework, we used data on reported cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit occupancy, and deaths to estimate the effect of NPIs. The list of NPIs includes: “contact restriction (up to 5 people)”, “strict contact restriction”, “curfew”, “events permitted up to 100 people”, “mask requirement in shopping malls”, “restaurant closure”, “restaurants permitted only with test”, “school closure” and “general behavioral changes”. We found a considerable reduction in the instantaneous reproduction number by “general behavioral changes”, “strict contact restriction”, “restaurants permitted only with test”, “contact restriction (up to 5 people)”, “restaurant closure” and “curfew”. No association with school closures could be found. This study suggests that some public health measures, including general behavioral changes, strict contact restrictions, and restaurants permitted only with tests are associated with containing the Covid-19 pandemic. Future research is needed to better understand the effectiveness of NPIs in the context of Covid-19 vaccination.

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The effect of a nighttime curfew on the spread of COVID-19

Cited by 11 publications

References 30 publications

Estimating the population effectiveness of interventions against COVID-19 in France: a modelling study

Estimating the population effectiveness of interventions against COVID-19 in France: a modelling study

An electricity smart meter dataset of Spanish households: insights into consumption patterns

Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach to study the association between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the spread of Covid-19 in Germany

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