Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach to study the association between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the spread of Covid-19 in Germany

Khazaei, Yeganeh; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Hoffmann, Sabine; Syliqi, Diella; Rehms, Raphael

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-45950-2

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 35 publications

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“…Enhanced surveillance is commonplace in all regions where it has shown efficacy. Furthermore, a German study indicated that combined general behavioural changes were the most effective non-pharmaceutical intervention [26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Response Measures and Their Impact on Mortality Rate

Konishi

2024

COVID

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(1) Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic significantly affected the population worldwide, with varying responses implemented to control its spread. This study aimed to compare the epidemic data compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) to understand the impact of the measures adopted by each country on the mortality rate. (2) Methods: The increase or decrease in the number of confirmed cases was understood in logarithmic terms, for which logarithmic growth rates “K” were used. The mortality rate was calculated as the percentage of deaths from the confirmed cases, which was also used for logarithmic comparison. (3) Results: Countries that effectively detected and isolated patients had a mortality rate 10 times lower than those who did not. Although strict lockdowns were once effective, they could not be implemented on an ongoing basis. After their cancellation, large outbreaks occurred because of medical breakdowns. The virus variants mutated with increased infectivity, which impeded the measures that were once effective, including vaccinations. Although the designs of mRNA vaccines were renewed, they could not keep up with the virus mutation rate. The only effective defence lies in steadily identifying and isolating patients. (4) Conclusions: these findings have crucial implications for the complete containment of the pandemic and future pandemic preparedness.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Response Measures and Their Impact on Mortality Rate

Konishi

2024

COVID

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Comparison of fatalities due to COVID-19 and other nonexternal causes during the first five pandemic waves

Buschner,

Katz,

Beyerlein

2024

Bundesgesundheitsbl

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Background Older age is a risk factor for a fatal course of SARS-CoV‑2 infection, possibly due to comorbidities whose exact role in this context, however, is not yet well understood. In this paper, the characteristics and comorbidities of persons who had died of COVID-19 in Bavaria by July 2022 are shown and compared with the characteristics of other fatalities during the pandemic. Methods Based on data from multiple cause of death statistics, odds ratios for dying from COVID-19 (compared to dying from other nonexternal causes of death) were calculated by using logistic regression models, stratified by age, sex, and pandemic waves. Results In Bavaria, a total of 24,479 persons (6.5% of all deaths) officially died from COVID-19 between March 2020 and July 2022. In addition to increasing age and male sex, preexisting diseases and comorbidities such as obesity, degenerative diseases of the nervous system, dementia, renal insufficiency, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus were significantly associated with COVID-19–related deaths. Dementia was mainly associated with increased COVID-19 mortality during the first and second waves, while obesity was strongly associated during the fourth wave. Discussion The frequency of specific comorbidities in COVID-19 deaths varied over the course of the pandemic. This suggests that wave-specific results also need to be interpreted against the background of circulating virus variants, changing immunisation levels, and nonpharmaceutical interventions in place at the time.

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Assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: results of a natural experiment regarding Baden-Württemberg (Germany) and Switzerland in the second infection wave

Wieland

2024

J Public Health (Berl.)

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Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach to study the association between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the spread of Covid-19 in Germany

Cited by 4 publications

References 35 publications

A Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Response Measures and Their Impact on Mortality Rate

A Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Response Measures and Their Impact on Mortality Rate

Comparison of fatalities due to COVID-19 and other nonexternal causes during the first five pandemic waves

Assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: results of a natural experiment regarding Baden-Württemberg (Germany) and Switzerland in the second infection wave

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