The econophysics in the Euromillions lottery

Abstract

This paper provides a simple analysis of data available online concerning the Euromillions lottery. We show that the data support a model where only a fraction of the bettors convince other people to start playing. We can estimate how large this fraction is and what the number of new bettors brought into the game is. Also we found that bettors do not play randomly, and that consequently there is available information that any bettor can use in order to increase his expected returns.

The Compatriot Win Effect on National Sales of a Multicountry Lottery

“…Mostardinha et al . () provided an alternative perspective when they discussed ‘exponential bursts’ in Euromillions sales during sequences of consecutive rollovers. They hypothezised that the population of potential buyers includes a proportion of ‘susceptible’ individuals who may be persuadable to become players either from media coverage or by the example or word of mouth recommendations of others.…”

“…Whereas lottery economists have usually proceeded from the notion of potential players being individual decision takers, Mostardinha et al . () essentially modelled herding behaviour and a substantial expansion of the Euromillions market following a major win in a country could be predicted from thinking about it as being a similar process to that behind an idea ‘going viral’ in the on‐line world. Whether this story has relevance in the present context cannot be determined by our data.…”

The Potential of Econophysics for the Study of Economic Processes

“…Bankruptcy as an exit mechanism for systems with a variable number of components (Gatti et al, 2004). Econophysics in the Euromillions lottery (Mostardinha et al, 2006). Modeling the information society as a complex system (Baggio, 2006;Olivera et al, 2011).…”

Applications of a constrained mechanics methodology in economics

“…interdisciplinary topic on the undergraduate level of physics education. For recent educational contributions dealing with econophysics (but lacking concrete examples or inappropriate for undergraduates) see [6], [7], [8], [9]. Being intended for the students of physics without preceding knowledge of economic theories, the examples given in the paper are based on intuitive economic terminology and supplemented by easy-to-read explanations and interpretations of the economical background.…”

“…In this paper, we present instructive examples of how the methodology of constrained dynamic systems, commonly used in classical mechanics, can be used for solving economic problems and, in this way, we supply instruments to present and demonstrate this interdisciplinary topic at the undergraduate level of physics education. For recent educational contributions dealing with econophysics (but lacking concrete examples or inappropriate for undergraduates) see [6][7][8][9]. Being intended for the students of physics without preceding knowledge of economic theories, the examples given in the paper are based on intuitive economic terminology and supplemented by easy-to-read explanations and interpretations of the economic background.…”