The Compatriot Win Effect on National Sales of a Multicountry Lottery

Abstract

Summary Euromillions is a lotto game played across nine countries. We examine more than 8 years of sales data for individual states to assess whether a jackpot win in a country increases subsequent sales in that country. We propose a novel test for the presence of such a ‘compatriot win effect’ that has as its only assumption that the lottery draw is random. Results suggest elevated sales over 12 draws following a national win. When we model the size of the effect, it proves to be modest in size for average jackpot wins but much larger and longer lasting for the highest pay‐outs.