The economic resilience of Irish counties for subsequent recessions and the impact of population distribution on resilience

Abstract

Relevance. Much research was undertaken on regional economic resilience after the financial crisis of 2008. The current crisis caused by Covid19 provides an opportunity to understand further the nature of regional economic resilience. It also provides an opportunity to analyse the urban-rural divide of economic resilience for two recessions. Research objective. There are two main objectives of this study Firstly, to understand if resilience to one recession provides a good indication of resilience to a subsequent recession. The second aim is to understand the urban-rural differences in regional economic resilience in Ireland. Data and methods. This is a quantitative study which uses data from the Irish Central Statistics Office regarding unemployment and population distribution. To understand economic resilience a sensitivity index is used and to check for correlation the Pearson coefficient is used. Results. Results show that there is no correlation between resilience to the financial crisis and resilience to the Covid19 crisis. Population distribution was not a determinant of resilience to the financial crisis. However, population distribution was a determinant of resilience to the Covid19 crisis. Counties with high population in ‘independent urban towns’ or ‘rural areas with moderate urban influence’ were more resilient while counties with high population in ‘satellite urban towns’ or ‘rural areas with high urban influence’ were more vulnerable. Conclusions. Economic resilience to one recession is not a good indication of resilience to future recessions. Counties with population in urban centres or more reliant on urban areas were less resilient to the Covid19 crisis.

Explaining the cross-country differences in the economic fallout during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis

“…A number of these studies examine resilience from a regional perspective. Gong et al (2020) and Hennebry (2020) look at the resilience of Chinese and Irish regions, respectively, to the COVID-19 crisis. Using the regional GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2020 as an indicator of economic resilience and its correlation with pre-existing factors, Gong et al (2020) find that the characteristics of the pan-demic crisis, institutional experience in tackling past epidemic crises, government measures to support the economy and the economic structure of regions, including reliance on contact-sensitive industries and foreign trade, affect the resilience of Chinese regions.…”

The impact mechanism of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience: Based on the moderating effects of industrial structure and human capital

“…用。目前中国城镇化进入中后期， 大量人口、 经济 要素向特大超大城市 (群) 快速集聚 [2] ， 而部分城市 面临着明显的人口流失压力， 甚至成为 "收缩型城 市" 状态 [3] 。不同城市人口变化的分异引致城市发 展状态和趋势出现分化， 形成增长与收缩并行的新 格局 [4] ， 其中部分地区因人口收缩而产生住房空置、 用地低效、 空间失序等一系列经济社会问题 [5,6] 是指一个系统遭受外部冲击后维持自身稳定并恢 复原有状态的能力 [1] 。Martin 等 [7] 将韧性概念引入 城市和区域经济领域， 认为当经济增长受到冲击 后， 有韧性的经济体通常具备较强自我调节和恢复 能力， 能够较快恢复之前的增长路径或者重新配置 资源以拓展新的增长路径 [7,8] 。自 2008 年全球金融 危机以来， 城市和区域经济韧性成为经济地理学的 热点术语。大量文献以金融危机为切入点， 围绕区 域经济韧性的概念、 能力特性、 过程特征、 影响因素 和政策价值等方面展开细致探讨 [9][10][11][12] ， 在影响因素方 面， 学者们基于区域内生尺度下的 "演化韧性" 范 式， 关注产业结构、 基础设施建设、 地方制度等因素 对经济韧性的影响 [13][14][15] 。近年来， 贸易争端、 疫情冲 击及地缘政治等多重危机使得区域经济处于高度 不确定环境中， 也对经济韧性的学术深化和政策转 向提出新的挑战 [14] ， 一些学者基于适应性韧性的概 念对经济韧性理论框架进一步深化， 从动态性、 多 主体互动的视角审视经济韧性的形成过程 [15] 。如 Neffke 等 [16] 指出经济主体在塑造经济韧性中的重要 作用； Martin 等 [7] 强调韧性的产生依赖于企业、 劳动 力、 政府等主体引进新的生产能力， 让旧的产能退 出。部分学者进一步从人口集聚、 人口分布、 技能 异质性等视角针对劳动力市场韧性展开研究 [17][18][19] 。 例如， Dario 等 [20] 利用荷兰 12 个地区跨部门劳动力 流动微观数据， 分析劳动力市场应对冲击时表现出 的抵御力和恢复力； Hennebry 发现 [21] ， 新冠疫情期间 爱尔兰地区城乡人口分化与经济韧性呈现出一定 相关性； Pavelea 等 [22] 进一步分析了罗马尼亚创意阶 层在空间上转移与劳动力市场韧性之间的联系； Zhou 等 [18] 利用人口普查数据和抽样调查数据， 探讨 技能关联在中国劳动力市场中发挥的作用。 "城市收缩" 最早被用来描述 20 世纪末城市人 口减少与经济衰退的过程， 受全球化、 去工业化、 郊 区化和人口老龄化的影响， 城市收缩现象日益普遍， 也逐渐成为全球关注的城市发展议题 [23] 。人口收缩 是城市收缩的核心特征之一， 已有研究倾向于关注 人口收缩的界定、 空间演化及影响因素分析 [24,25] 。 近年来学者逐渐关注人口收缩引发的经济绩效、 环 境绩效等 [26][27][28][29] 。其中， 学者们对人口收缩引发的经 济效应存在争议， Hospers [26] 认为， 人口收缩对经济 发展造成不利影响， 而 Hartt [28] 、 Weaver 等 [29] 学者则 认为人口收缩引起的经济效应并非总是负面， 地区 人口的下降可能会带来社会福祉的增加和个人经 济的繁荣。经历近 40 年快速城镇化进程后， 中国也 逐渐出现城市收缩现象， 但区别于西方发达国家， 中国城市存在普遍增长与局部收缩共存的空间特 征 [4,…”