The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities

Abstract

Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model, we analyze the economic impacts of grain export disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine War during the first year of hostilities. The simulation results indicate that these disruptions not only affect Ukraine and Russia but also generate significant economic impacts across other world regions. Ukraine is projected to experience the largest impact on its own economy, with a real GDP loss of $859 million. In contrast, Russia's GDP is projected to decline by only $3.8 million, primarily due to its much lower dependence on grain exports and to favorable terms of trade effects.

Impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on grain and fertilizer supply: Evidence from Kenya

“…The current study extends this analysis by using the regression discontinuity technique to impact evaluation with application to Kenya and focusing on grain and fertilizer. Some studies have examined the impact of the war on world's stock and equity markets (Ahmed et al, 2022;Boubaker et al, 2022;Boungou & Yatie, 2022;Diaconasu et al, 2022;Rose et al, 2023;Silva et al, 2023), and a gap exists on the impact of the war on grain and fertilizer through commodity futures whose impact is transmitted through the pass-through effect of exchange rate adjustment. The war negatively impacted world's stock markets, and the impact was more pronounced among countries bordering Ukraine and Russia as well as United Nations members who condemned the war.…”