The economic growth enigma revisited: The EU-15 since the 1970s

Voudouris, Vlasios; Ayres, Robert U.; Serrenho, André Cabrera; Kiose, Daniil

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.027

Cited by 22 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Future work can make increased use of the data sets and incorporate more variables to relate f e,GDP to other factors (e.g., labor, capital) considered to model GDP and energy relationships in previous studies, particularly those of those of Ayres, Voudouris, Kümmel, and Stern [5,6,8,10,18,49,51]. For example, Ayres and Voudouris [5] show that for the US, the UK, and Japan, production functions including capital, labor, and "useful energy" are more accurate than those assuming only inputs of capital and labor.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Ayres and Voudouris [5] show that for the US, the UK, and Japan, production functions including capital, labor, and "useful energy" are more accurate than those assuming only inputs of capital and labor. Voudouris et al [6] analyze 15 EU countries (13 of which are in my data IEA data set) using the method of Ayres and Voudouris [5]. Interestingly, the average marginal product (e.g., contribution to economic growth) of "useful energy" is near zero for Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain; and the latter three (Ireland is not in my data set) have significant correlations of f e,GDP to 1-year lagged ∆GDP.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These metrics of energy quality in one way or another account for "energy plus technology" rather than simply gross primary energy consumption. This quality factor is often one based upon relative prices of resources (e.g., the price per MJ is higher for oil than coal) [46], thermodynamic characterizations such as fuel exergy, technology conversion efficiency, and "useful work" delivered [5,6,10,18], or embodied energy concepts such as emergy [47,48]. The work of Ayres is particularly enlightening to show that energy, expressed as useful work (e.g., light, mechanical motion, heat, etc.…”

Section: Summary Of Econometric Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 3: Macroeconomic Historical and Future Perspectives

King¹,

Maxwell

Donovan

2015

Energies

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I use energy cost share to characterize the role of energy in the economy. Specifically, I use an estimate of monetary expenditures for primary energy on an annualized basis for forty-four countries from 1978 to 2010 for natural gas, coal, petroleum, and electricity. I show that global energy cost share is significantly correlated to a one-year lag in the change in gross domestic product as well as measures of total factor productivity. Given the historical reduction in the relative cost of energy (including food and fodder for animate power) since the start of the Industrial Revolution, combined with a global energy cost share estimate, I conclude that the turn of the 21st Century represents the time period with the cheapest energy in the history of human civilization (to date). This potential historical nadir for energy expenditures around 2000 has important ramifications for strategies to solve future social, economic, and environmental problems such as reducing annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Rapidly decreasing annual GHG emissions while internalizing their costs into the economy might feedback to increase energy expenditures to such a degree as to prevent economic growth during that transition.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Summary Of Econometric Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 3: Macroeconomic Historical and Future Perspectives

King¹,

Maxwell

Donovan

2015

Energies

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“…Including U as the energy input has support in the wider economic literature-various researchers including Ayres and Warr [50,76] and Voudouris et al [77] claim that useful exergy-not primary energy or final energy-provides the energy "input" which is most closely linked to economic growth.…”

Section: The Exergy-based Ces Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Rebound as a Potential Threat to a Low-Carbon Future: Findings from a New Exergy-Based National-Level Rebound Approach

et al. 2017

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150 years ago, Stanley Jevons introduced the concept of energy rebound: that anticipated energy efficiency savings may be "taken back" by behavioural responses. This is an important issue today because, if energy rebound is significant, this would hamper the effectiveness of energy efficiency policies aimed at reducing energy use and associated carbon emissions. However, empirical studies which estimate national energy rebound are rare and, perhaps as a result, rebound is largely ignored in energy-economy models and associated policy. A significant difficulty lies in the components of energy rebound assessed in empirical studies: most examine direct and indirect rebound in the static economy, excluding potentially significant rebound of the longer term structural response of the national economy. In response, we develop a novel exergy-based approach to estimate national energy rebound for the UK and US and China (1981China ( -2010. Exergy-as "available energy"-allows a consistent, thermodynamic-based metric for national-level energy efficiency. We find large energy rebound in China, suggesting that improvements in China's energy efficiency may be associated with increased energy consumption ("backfire"). Conversely, we find much lower (partial) energy rebound for the case of the UK and US. These findings support the hypothesis that producer-sided economies (such as China) may exhibit large energy rebound, reducing the effectiveness of energy efficiency, unless other policy measures (e.g., carbon taxes) are implemented. It also raises the prospect we need to deploy renewable energy sources faster than currently planned, if (due to rebound) energy efficiency policies cannot deliver the scale of energy reduction envisaged to meet climate targets.

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“…Conclusions range from the possible unimportance of all natural resources [3], to energy price spikes being a chief determinant of recessions [4], to energy and prime-movers as being equally important to labor and capital in driving economic growth [5,6], to energy and prime-movers as the critical elements, more important than labor or capital, in driving economies during industrialization [7] and possibly over the long term [8][9][10]. Countries with high per capita NPR economic is the inverse of the energy cost share and puts this in the context of data from input-output frameworks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 2: Total Economy Expenditure Perspective

King

Maxwell²,

Donovan

2015

Energies

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Abstract:We translate between energetic and economic metrics that characterize the role of energy in the economy. Specifically, we estimate monetary expenditures for the primary energy and net external power ratio (NEPR direct ; NEPR, net external power ratio), a power return ratio of annual energy production divided by annual direct energy inputs within the energy industry. We estimate these on an annualized basis for forty-four countries from 1978 to 2010. Expressed as a fraction of gross domestic product (GDP), f e,GDP , the forty-four country aggregate (composing >90% world GDP) worldwide expenditures on energy decreased from a maximum of 10.3% in 1979 to a minimum of 3.0% in 1998 before increasing to a second peak of 8.1% in 2008. While the global f e,GDP fluctuates significantly, global NEPR direct declined from a value of 34 in 1980 to 17 in 1986 before staying in a range between 14 and 16 from 1991 to 2010. In comparing both of these metrics as ratios of power output over power input, one economic ( f −1 e,GDP ) and one biophysical (NEPR direct ), we see that when the former divided by the latter is below unity, the world was in a low-growth or recessionary state.

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The economic growth enigma revisited: The EU-15 since the 1970s

Cited by 22 publications

References 22 publications

Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 3: Macroeconomic Historical and Future Perspectives

Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 3: Macroeconomic Historical and Future Perspectives

Energy Rebound as a Potential Threat to a Low-Carbon Future: Findings from a New Exergy-Based National-Level Rebound Approach

Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 2: Total Economy Expenditure Perspective

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