Energy Rebound as a Potential Threat to a Low-Carbon Future: Findings from a New Exergy-Based National-Level Rebound Approach

Abstract

150 years ago, Stanley Jevons introduced the concept of energy rebound: that anticipated energy efficiency savings may be "taken back" by behavioural responses. This is an important issue today because, if energy rebound is significant, this would hamper the effectiveness of energy efficiency policies aimed at reducing energy use and associated carbon emissions. However, empirical studies which estimate national energy rebound are rare and, perhaps as a result, rebound is largely ignored in energy-economy models and associated policy. A significant difficulty lies in the components of energy rebound assessed in empirical studies: most examine direct and indirect rebound in the static economy, excluding potentially significant rebound of the longer term structural response of the national economy. In response, we develop a novel exergy-based approach to estimate national energy rebound for the UK and US and China (1981China ( -2010. Exergy-as "available energy"-allows a consistent, thermodynamic-based metric for national-level energy efficiency. We find large energy rebound in China, suggesting that improvements in China's energy efficiency may be associated with increased energy consumption ("backfire"). Conversely, we find much lower (partial) energy rebound for the case of the UK and US. These findings support the hypothesis that producer-sided economies (such as China) may exhibit large energy rebound, reducing the effectiveness of energy efficiency, unless other policy measures (e.g., carbon taxes) are implemented. It also raises the prospect we need to deploy renewable energy sources faster than currently planned, if (due to rebound) energy efficiency policies cannot deliver the scale of energy reduction envisaged to meet climate targets.

Exploring the Direct Rebound Effect of Energy Consumption: A Case Study

“…During this period, China's economy and energy consumption have been at a plateau and the direct energy rebound effect has always been below 100%. This is basically consistent with the findings of Brockway et al [15]. The Chinese economy developed rapidly in the period of 2001-2006 due to the reform and opening up of China (Table 7).…”

“…Freire [14] suggested that seven of the EU's 27member states have witnessed the direct energy rebound effect higher than 100%. Brockway et al [15] pointed out that the UK and US had a low direct energy rebound effect nationwide between 1980 and 2010. Lin and Du [16] examined the direct energy rebound effect in China and found that direct energy rebound effect lay between 30% and 40% from 1981 to 2011.…”

Does the rebound effect matter in energy import-dependent mega-cities? Evidence from Shanghai (China)

“…Some studies also compare different countries' rebound effects and their time trends. For instance, Brockway et al [3] estimated the rebound effects of China, US, and UK, and found that China had a higher rebound effect, while UK and US presented partial rebound effects. They attributed such a gap to China's "producer-sided economy" status.…”

“…As the world's second largest economy and the largest energy consumption country, 3 China has huge energy demand and high energy-saving pressure, which impede the country's green and sustainable development. To resolve such a problem, various policies and measures focusing on improving energy efficiency have been taken in China.…”

Sinergias entre o planejamento energético e o planejamento urbano: estudo de caso do sistema de energia urbano da megacidade de São Paulo

“…10 Considera-se aqui a análise exergética como método para otimização de processos e promoção do uso eficiente dos recursos naturais. Para mais informações ver: BRISTOW; KENNEDY, 2013;BROCKWAY et al, 2017;LEDUC;VAN KANN, 2013;RAVALDE;KEIRSTEAD, 2017;ROJAS, 2007). 11 O termo "potencialidade" é empregado de forma subjetiva e pode ser encarado de várias formas.…”