The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James

doi:10.3390/su7044131

Cited by 35 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Putting this information into a land use and economic context, however, provides additional information to characterize the risk which can potentially be used to compare these coastal risks to other policy priorities, and to other risks of climate change in Vietnam (see [6]). As a first step in this process of contextualizing the coastal risks, we overlay the results from the previous section on available land use data-this process, however, is limited by the coarse nature of available elevation data-as a result SLR and storm surge effects can only reliably be characterized on one-meter elevation "bins" (see the previous section).…”

Section: Potential Economic Impacts Of Storm Surge and Slrmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additional impact channels include water, agriculture and hydropower [4] and road infrastructure [5]. These sectoral impact channels are combined to provide an economy-wide assessment of climate change for Vietnam [6]. This paper on cyclones and storm surges includes three sections: (1) background information on coastal flooding in the Red River delta; (2) a thorough description of the applied methodology and (3) the results of the analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Neumann¹,

Emanuel

Ravela

et al. 2015

Sustainability

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This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam. Permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones are analyzed by combining sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with simulated storm surge levels for the 100-year event. Our analysis finds that sea level rise through 2050 could increase the effective frequency of the current 100-year storm surge, which is associated with a storm surge of roughly five meters, to once every 49 years. Approximately 10% of the Hanoi region's GDP is vulnerable to permanent inundation due to sea level rise, and more than 40% is vulnerable to periodic storm surge damage consistent with the current 100-year storm. We conclude that coastal adaptation measures, such as a planned retreat from the sea, and construction of a more substantial seawall and dike system, are needed to respond to these threats.

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Section: Potential Economic Impacts Of Storm Surge and Slrmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Neumann¹,

Emanuel

Ravela

et al. 2015

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A risk assessment in order to identify major climate risks related to the object at issue requires climate projections and a translation of these projections to the sector at issue (e.g. Arndt et al 2015). This in turn requires different types of technical expertise.…”

Section: Assessing Responsibilities For Climate Adaptation: a Stepwismentioning

confidence: 99%

Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

et al. 2015

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Climate change-related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and pluvial flooding, droughts, storms, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary-but not the only-precondition for being prepared for climate change. In this paper, we present, and preliminarily test, a method for the ex-ante assessment of the division of public and private responsibilities for climate adaptation in terms of comprehensiveness, transparency, legitimacy, and effectiveness. This method proofs particularly suited for the assessment of adaptation responsibilities in combination with a sectoral approach. It helps identifying a number of shortcomings in divisions of responsibilities for climate adaptation. We conclude that this method is useful as a diagnostic tool for identifying the expected climate change preparedness level, and recommend to combine this with ex-post analyses of real-life cases of extreme events in order to assess the actual preparedness for climate change. Besides the scientific purpose of providing a generally applicable assessment method, with this method, we also intend to assist policymakers in developing and implementing adaptation plans at various levels.

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“…For example, the World Bank's study of the economics of adaptation to climate change (World Bank 2011) focused on four future climates. Recent work in Vietnam expanded the number of climates considered by analyzing all 56 climates employed for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (Arndt et al 2012b). However, while these 56 climates exhibit significant variation, especially at country level scales, they do not represent a systematic attempt to populate the future distribution of potential climate outcomes for a given global climate policy scenario.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Informed selection of future climates

et al. 2014

Self Cite

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Analysis of climate change is often computationally burdensome. Here, we present an approach for intelligently selecting a sample of climates from a population of 6800 climates designed to represent the full distribution of likely climate outcomes out to 2050 for the Zambeze River Valley. Philosophically, our approach draws upon information theory. Technically, our approach draws upon the numerical integration literature and recent applications of Gaussian quadrature sampling. In our approach, future climates in the Zambeze River Valley are summarized in 12 variables. Weighted Gaussian quadrature samples containing approximately 400 climates are then obtained using the information from these 12 variables. Specifically, the moments of the 12 summary variables in the samples, out to order three, are obliged to equal (or be close to) the moments of the population of 6800 climates. Runoff in the Zambeze River Valley is then estimated for 2026 to 2050 using the CliRun model for all 6800 climates. It is then straightforward to compare the properties of various subsamples. Based on a root of mean square error (RMSE) criteria, the Gaussian quadrature samples substantially outperform random samples of the same size in the prediction of annual average runoff from 2026 to 2050. Relative to random samples, Gaussian quadrature samples tend to perform best when climate change effects are stronger. We conclude that, when properly employed, Gaussian quadrature samples provide an efficient and tractable way to treat climate uncertainty in biophysical and economic models.

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The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

Cited by 35 publications

References 16 publications

Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

Informed selection of future climates

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