Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Neumann, James E.; Emanuel, Kerry; Ravela, Sai; Ludwig, Lindsay; Verly, Caroleen

doi:10.3390/su7066553

Cited by 70 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…Marginal damages to capital stock due to storm surge and cyclones. Source: Authors' calculations using results from Neumann et al [8].…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, Neumann et al [8] consider the coupled effect of sea level rise (SLR) and storm surges. Cyclones are already a regular occurrence in Vietnam, but SLR will increase the extent to which storm surges are able to reach inland and damage infrastructure.…”

Section: Biophysical Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As mentioned earlier, one meter SLR is an extreme scenario for climate projections until 2050 (but perhaps a less extreme one for 2100). Following Neumann et al [8], we assume that climate change is expected to deliver at most 0.38 m of SLR by 2050. However, elevation data for Vietnam was available at one meter steps.…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sector level impact channels include water, agriculture and hydropower [4], road infrastructure [6], and cyclones and storm surge [8]. This article combines these sectoral impact channels to provide an economy-wide assessment of climate change for Vietnam.…”

Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consequently, a changing climate could jeopardize farm revenues and rural livelihoods [2][3][4][5]. Inundation from flooding events, sea level rise (SLR), and cyclone strike could displace large populations and damage or destroy capital including valuable transport and energy infrastructure [6][7][8][9]. Together, these characteristics mean that crucial economic sectors, i.e., agriculture, energy and infrastructure, are exposed to climate risks that could influence Vietnam's long-term development prospects.…”

Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

2015

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Abstract:We adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economy-wide model. Our results indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest to 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are net benefits from selected pre-emptive actions though careful consideration of opportunity costs is required.

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“…Marginal damages to capital stock due to storm surge and cyclones. Source: Authors' calculations using results from Neumann et al [8].…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Biophysical Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

2015

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A review of tropical cyclone‐generated storm surges: Global data sources, observations, and impacts

Needham

Keim

Sathiaraj

2015

Reviews of Geophysics

241

115

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Tropical cyclone-generated storm surges are among the world's most deadly and destructive natural hazards. This paper provides the first comprehensive global review of tropical storm surge data sources, observations, and impacts while archiving data in SURGEDAT, a global database. Available literature has provided data for more than 700 surge events since 1880, the majority of which are found in the western North Atlantic (WNA), followed by Australia/Oceania, the western North Pacific (WNP), and the northern Indian Ocean (NIO). The Bay of Bengal (BOB) in the NIO consistently observes the world's highest surges, as this subbasin averages five surges ≥5 m per decade and has observed credible storm tide levels reaching 13.7 m. The WNP observes the highest rate of low-magnitude surges, as the coast of China averages 54 surges ≥1 m per decade, and rates are likely higher in the Philippines. The U.S. Gulf Coast observes the second highest frequency of both high-magnitude (≥5 m) and low-magnitude (≥1 m) surges. The BOB observes the most catastrophic surge impacts, as 59% of global tropical cyclones that have killed at least 5000 people occurred in this basin. The six deadliest cyclones in this region have each killed at least 140,000 people, and two events have killed 300,000. Storm surge impacts transportation, agriculture, and energy sectors in the WNA. Oceania experiences long-term impacts, including contamination of fresh water and loss of food supplies, although the highest surges in this region are lower than most other basins.

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Assessing Land Deformation and Sea Encroachment in the Nile Delta: A Radar Interferometric and Inundation Modeling Approach

et al. 2018

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Persistent scatterer interferometric analyses were conducted on a stack of 84 Environmental Satellite's Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar scenes spanning 7 years (2004 to 2010) over the entire Nile Delta of Egypt and surroundings (area: 40,416 km2) to monitor the ongoing spatial and temporal land deformation, identify the factors controlling the deformation, and model the interplay between sea level rise and land subsidence to identify areas and populations threatened by sea encroachment by the end of the 21st century. Findings include the following: (1) general patterns of subsidence (average rate: −2.4 mm/year) in the northern delta, near‐steady to slight subsidence in the southern delta (average rate: 0.4 mm/year), separated by a previously mapped flexure zone (minimum width: 20–40 km) undergoing uplift (average rate: 2.5 mm/year); (2) high subsidence rates (up to −8.9 mm/year) over the north central and northeastern delta (area: ~4,815 km2), possibly due to compaction of recent (<3,500 years old), thick (>5 m) silt and clay‐rich Holocene sediments; (3) high subsidence rates (up to −9.7 mm/year) in areas where the highest groundwater extraction rates were reported in southern delta (Menoufia governorate) and in reclaimed desert land in the western delta (Beheira governorate); (4) high subsidence rates (up to −9.7 mm/year) over onshore gas fields, notably the Abu Madi gas field, where high gas extraction rates have been recorded; and (5) using extracted deformation rates, high‐resolution TanDEM‐X digital elevation model, a eustatic sea level rise of 0.44 m, and applying a bathtub inundation model, an estimated 2,660 km2 in northern delta will be inundated by year 2100.

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Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Cited by 70 publications

References 18 publications

The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

A review of tropical cyclone‐generated storm surges: Global data sources, observations, and impacts

Assessing Land Deformation and Sea Encroachment in the Nile Delta: A Radar Interferometric and Inundation Modeling Approach

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