The ecological response of commercial fishes and shrimps to climate change: predicting global distributional shifts under future scenarios

Threads Outweigh Opportunities for the Shrimp Fishery in the Colombian Pacific Ocean under climate change scenarios

“…According to our SDM results, the crucial factors influencing the spatiotemporal distribution of the shallower water shrimps L. occidentalis and X. riveti are bottom temperature and salinity. This finding aligns with research conducted on other shallow shrimp species in diverse regions, such as Mexico (Cota-Durán et al, 2021), Brazil (Lopes et al, 2017), the Persian Gulf, the coasts of North, East, and West Australia, and the North of the Arabian Sea (Sharifian et al, 2022;Sharifian et al, 2023). However, in these studies, bathymetry consistently emerged as a significant variable shaping shrimp habitat suitability alongside temperature.…”

“…Regarding the threads, opportunities and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity, it is necessary to evaluate the projected changes separately for each species, month, scenario, decade and location. Due to the complexity and non-linearity of the effects of climate change (Doney et al 2012;Bucchignani et al 2024), there is not always gradualness in how their potential effects manifest when scaling up from low to high emission scenarios, from more recent to more distant decades, or when traversing along latitude or longitude gradients (Herrera-Montiel et al 2019;, Sharifian et al 2023. This meticulous evaluation must assess whether any change in spatiotemporal attributes represents a potential threat or opportunity at each location across the CPO, avoiding misleading generalizations.…”

“…These environmental changes have a profound impact on shrimps, affecting their growth, fecundity, and recruitment (Portner & Farrel 2008;Roesig et al 2004). Such alterations, compounded by overfishing, lead to shifts in species composition and distribution, with potential consequences for the productivity of shrimp fisheries (Sharifian et al 2023). As the global temperature rise accelerates, these changes underscore the criticality of understanding and mitigating the effects on shrimp populations (Basher et al 2016;Cota-Durán et al 2021).…”

“…As of now, only a limited number of climate change simulations have been conducted for shrimp species distributions. However, some estimates indicate that the primary impact results in a reduction of distribution areas (Lopes et al 2018;Sharifian et al 2023). Nevertheless, there are also instances where shrimps might experience localized benefits due to enhanced suitabilities at local scales (Cota-Duran et al 2021).…”