The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity

Kjellström, Tord; Kovats, Sari; Lloyd, Simon J; Holt, Tom; Tol, Richard S.J.

doi:10.1080/19338240903352776

Cited by 337 publications

(264 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…(Note that the limits of the 0-3% GDP range 7 do not coincide with the limits of the 1.9-3°C range; most estimates in the Tol (2009Tol ( , 2014 analysis are 8 for either 2.5 or 3.0°C, and these span the range.). Many estimates depend on a large number of 9 disputable assumptions (see section 6.4 below).…”

Section: Economic Damages Between 0 and 3°c Of Warming Above Pre-indumentioning

confidence: 99%

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

et al. 2017

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The Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in 1 relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC 2 assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature 3 change (GMT). We review the RFC's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent 4 IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and 5 identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary 6 climate change metrics to GMT and better account for possible changes in social and ecological 7 system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios 8 of future climatic and societal conditions. 9The RFC framework was developed in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) to inform discussions 10 relevant to implementation of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 11Article 2 presents the Convention's long-term objective of avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic 12 interference with the climate system." The RFC framework and the associated "Burning Embers" 13 diagram illustrating authors' risk judgments have since been widely discussed and used to inform policy 14 decisions. For example, they informed a recent dialog between Parties to the UNFCCC and experts 1, 2 on 15 the adequacy of the long-term goal of avoiding a warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, contributing 16 to a strengthening of that goal in the recent Paris Agreement 3 . Elaborations of the Burning Embers have 17 been used to represent climate impacts and risks at the regional level 4 and for specific systems (e.g., 18ocean systems 5 ). 19This article reviews the conceptual basis for the RFCs (Box 1) and offers an explanation of the reasoning 20 behind associated risk judgments that is complementary to, but goes beyond, the treatment in the IPCC 21Fifth Assessment Report 6 . We focus explicitly on the evidence base for transitions from one risk level to 22 the next, incorporate post-AR5 literature in those discussions, and offer thoughts about limitations of 23 the subjective judgments behind each RFC. We also improved the synthesis of RFC-related material 24 across AR5, and in turn provide both a clearer connection to evidence from AR5 that supports the RFC 25 judgments, as well as a comparison of the RFCs to similar approaches employing metrics other than 26 GMT for characterizing risk. Perhaps most importantly, we consider improvements in the framework, 27 particularly emphasizing the dynamic nature of exposure and vulnerability, two key components of risk 28 not sufficiently covered in the current approach. 29 TEXT BOX 1: Conceptual Basis 30The Reasons for Concern (RFCs) reported in AR5 are: 31 Types of risk included in each category are discussed in the next section. The categories share an 37 emphasis on going beyond changes in biophysical systems to possible consequences for society and 38...

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Section: Economic Damages Between 0 and 3°c Of Warming Above Pre-indumentioning

confidence: 99%

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

et al. 2017

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“…While fatalities appear associated with warm nights (13), hot days alter the lifestyles and work productivity of those living at low latitudes (14). Both impacts will clearly worsen in warmer climates (15,16), but most believe humans will simply adapt, reasoning that humans already tolerate a very wide range of climates today.…”

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“…While empirical heat indices such as "wet bulb globe temperature" (WBGT) are typically used to quantify heat stress, tolerance of a given index value varies significantly according to clothing, activity, and acclimatization (14). We consider T W instead because, unlike other indices, it establishes a clear thermodynamic limit on heat transfer that cannot be overcome by such adaptations.…”

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An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress

Sherwood

Huber

2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

847

647

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Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wetbulb temperature T W , is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. T W never exceeds 31°C. Any exceedence of 35°C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7°C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11-12°C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12°C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.climate impacts | global warming | mammalian physiology | paleoclimate

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“…Finally, climate change impacts on job performance in Europe are derived from Kovats and Lloyd (2011), who assess the change in working conditions due to heat stress produced by the increase in temperature, and their effects on labour productivity. By linking climate data, a combined measure of heat and humidity (the "Wet Bulbe Globe Temperature"), and effects on the human body (Kjellstrom et al, 2009), they are able to estimate the expected decrease in labour productivity for four European macro-regions (Western, Eastern, Northern and Southern). The authors also consider sectoral impacts by taking into account future changes in labour force distribution across sectors.…”

Section: Market Damagesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Catastrophic Risk, Precautionary Abatement, and Adaptation Transfers

2015

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This paper contributes to the normative literature on mitigation and adaptation by framing the question of their optimal policy balance in the context of catastrophic climate risk. The analysis uses the WITCH integrated assessment model with a module that models the endogenous risk of experiencing an economic catastrophe if temperature increases above a certain threshold. We find that the risk of a catastrophic outcome would encourage countries to reduce emissions even in the absence of a coordinated global agreement on climate change and to realign the policy balance from adaptation toward more mitigation. Our analysis also shows that adaptation transfers from and strategic unilateral commitments to adaptation in developed countries appear to provide weak incentives for reducing emissions in developing countries. Thus our first conclusion is that precautionary considerations, rather than the ability to reduce smooth damage increases, justify mitigation as a fundamental policy option. Accordingly, adaptation is needed to cope with the non-catastrophic damages that countries would fail to address with mitigation Our second conclusion is that supporting adaptation in developing countries should be considered primarily as a mean for ensuring equity or improving development, and very marginally as a mitigation incentive.

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The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity

Cited by 337 publications

References 18 publications

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress

Catastrophic Risk, Precautionary Abatement, and Adaptation Transfers

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