The Diminishing Returns to the 2010 Human Development Index: Implications for Climate Policy and Sustainable Development

Abstract

Human development, energy, and greenhouse gases are inherently linked under current technology constraints. An empirical comparison illustrates that nations with higher human development values (in terms of the United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI)) contribute more carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions as a result of greater energy consumption. This finding seemingly places environmental sustainability at odds with advances in human development. However, the comparison also exposes the diminishing returns to HDI that accrue as emissions increase. If accurate, this relationship suggests that the developed world can make emission cuts without experiencing major set-backs in human well-being. It also suggests that under a global mitigation system, emission cuts in developed nations could enable emission increases in underdeveloped countries that result in major improvements to the human condition. Therefore, we investigate the diminishing returns to HDI in the context of sustainable climate policy design. We find that the saturation-like trend is inherent to development indicators and not driven by the functional form of the HDI. Also, the global trend is not consistently detected when the development pathways of individual nations are examined. Nevertheless, a clear relationship between CO 2 and HDI emerges within the least developed nations, fourteen of which show consistent advances in HDI as emissions increase over time. These findings suggest that sustainable climate policy should not allocate emission rights away from these nations. Furthermore, most developed nations exhibit periods of HDI improvement while emissions decline, reinforcing the criticality of employing broader development measures beyond indicators of income for sustainable policy design.

Human development, greenhouse gas emissions and sub-national mitigation burdens: a Brazilian perspective

“…We applied the logistic function to project estimations of the MicroHDI from 1991 to 2050. Future increments in human development slowdown in time for highly developed economies [ 18 , 36 ], which is simulated by the sigmoidal shape of the logistic function. Eq.…”

Human Development, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sub-National Mitigation Burdens: A Brazilian Perspective

“…Future increments in human development slowdown in time for highly developed economies [13,28], which is simulated by the sigmoidal shape of the logistic function. Eq 2 estimates the expected MicroHDI ) ( t i, d of each microregion ranging from 0 to 1, in which the coefficient i a represents how fast a microregion develops, i b is the independent adjustment term and t is time.…”

Enhancing the Sustainability Narrative through a Deeper Understanding of Sustainable Development Indicators

“…For more than a decade, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has published the Human Development Index (HDI), which has generated diverse responses from experts (e.g., [21][22][23]), national media (e.g., [24]), and policymakers (e.g., [25,26]). The HDI is a measure of a country's average achievement in human development, based on a long and healthy life (life expectancy at birth), knowledge (adult literacy rate and gross school enrollment ratio), and standard of living (Gross Domestic Product per capita).…”

“…The ESI incorporates 20 indicators, each of which combines two to eight variables [29]. First published in 2001, it has seen increasing popularity in the popular media [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. Values of the ESI for each country vary between 0 (most unsustainable) and 100 (most sustainable) [32].…”